Each day of the NBA season you’ll be able to see our default projections for every player from every game that day. These projections will initially be updated the day of when our analysis content (podcast and associated cliff notes). The projections will then be updated throughout the day as new information and research is available. We’ll stop updating the projections around an hour before main slate rosters lock, but during that time we’ll make sure to provide updates via our alerts system.
For more on our product as a whole, please check out our NBA DFS Product FAQ article: NBA PRODUCT FAQs
To access our NBA Customizable Projections, please click here: CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS
Okay, I’m on the projections page, what do I do now?
Get excited for the journey you are about to embark on. Properly excited? Okay, great!
At the top of the page, you’ll see a game filter. You can click the + sign to expand this:
At the top of the page, you’ll see a game filter. You can click the + sign to expand this:
All games will be checked by default. You can unselect or select all games at once by checking/unchecking the ALL box.
Moving slightly down the page, you’ll see more toggles:
Most of these are pretty self-explanatory.
- You can toggle between FanDuel and DraftKings Pricing/Scoring. NOTE: DraftKings scoring does not include bonuses currently.
- You can filter by salary to only show players within a specific salary range. For example, you could use this filter if you wanted to only show players priced at or below $6,000.
- The positional filters on the right hand side allow you to view players by position so that only players eligible at the chosen position (based on which site you are on) appear in the projections table below.
- In the top right hand corner, you have the ability to search for specific players.
What is the difference between Projected and 2016 Actual?
The one toggle we have not discussed yet is Projected and 2016 Actual:
We provide default minutes and advanced rates for each player. These are our expectations for players for the current day, and you’ll see them as the defaults on both the Projected and 2016 Actual toggles:
Projected will use our projected baseline statistics when making this calculation (for both the player and the opposing defense).
2016 Actual will use the actual statistics from the 2015-16 season (last season) as the player and opponent baselines when making this calculation. About a month in the season we will replace the 2016 Actual baselines with the 2017 Actual baselines (current season).
We prefer the Projected baselines, which allow us to normalize things such as shooting percentage and individual defensive statistics (which can vary quite a bit over a small sample size). This also allows us to more quickly adapt the projection based on personnel changes. For example, if Dwight Howard is injured two months into the season, we can change the baseline statistics for Atlanta’s defense to reflect this and thus have more accurate projections immediately.
The Actual method is still useful depending on user preference. If a player is shooting at a high percentage through the first month and you expect that to continue, you may want to view the projection created from their actual baseline statistics. More generally, if you feel we’re consistently either too high or too low on a player, team, or positions against a specific opponent using our Projected baselines, you’ll want to view the projections created off of the Actual baselines. REMINDER: For the first month of the season, the actual baseline statistics are reflective of last season.
How to use the projections
Now that we’ve got the filters/toggles/boring stuff out of the way, it’s time to have some fun. Based on the filters/toggles/boring stuff, you’ll see a table of projections.
You have the ability to sort our projections by total projection or by value. This will allow you to quickly identify the top overall plays at each position and the top value plays at each position:
Our value column is a calculation comparing each player’s projected point total to a point threshold that is created from their site specific salary. If you miss our old cheat sheets, you can recreate them in the click of a button by sorting on Value and then toggling position by position or simply viewing all players grouped together:
How do I customize projections?
Don’t agree with our projections? The beauty of our projection system is the easy in which you can customize it. If you think Hassan Whiteside gets into foul trouble, you can lower his minutes from 32 to 26 and his projection and value will immediately reflect the change. You can also adjust usage, rebound, and assist rate expectations.
For example, if you think Stephen Curry plays a little bit more on Opening Night, you can move his projected minutes from a default of 32 minutes:
To your best guess of 36 minutes by simply typing 36 in the MIN field:
As you can see, Curry’s total projection and value both immediately update accordingly.
You can do the same thing with other fields:
- EFF POS: This is a player’s effective position, and the defensive adjustment applied will vary based on this field. So, if LeBron James is actually playing more minutes at PF, you can switch his EFF POS from SF to PF and his projection/value will update accordingly.
- MIN: Minutes (see Curry example above)
- UR: Usage Rate. For example, if Stephen Curry is out, you can increase Klay Thompson’s usage rate. Again, his projection/value will immediately update accordingly.
- RR: Rebound Rate.
- AR: Assist Rate.
- MAN EA: Manual Efficiency Adjustment. This is a quick and easy way to increase/decrease a projection. You can click the up and down arrows in this box, which all change the projection by 1 percentage point.
If you think a projection is too high or too low for whatever reason (defensive adjustment isn’t high/low enough, expecting an abnormally high/low game from an efficiency perspective, etc.), and want to quickly adjust a projection, this is the best way to do it.
For example, Kyle Anderson pops as a strong value Opening Night due to a big increase in expected minutes from last year. If you feel our projections is too optimistic because you expect that his efficiency will dip dramatically with those increased minutes, you can simply dock his projection by 5% (or whatever number you feel is appropriate):
Using our Advanced Statistics to help with the customizer
First off, using the customizer is not necessary. So if you are feeling intimidated, you can take comfort in knowing that the default projections you see are what the DailyRoto experts are using (along with the other content provided each day).
If you do want to make use of the customizer but are unsure how to get started, using our ADVANCED STATISTICS page is a great place to begin.
If you go to that page, click the “Advanced” toggle:
This allows you to view a player’s season-long usage/assist/rebound and Fantasy point production. For the usage/assist/rebound rates, you are able to compare the season-long statistics to his statistics over his team’s last 5 or last 10 games. The change in those rates is a separate column.
So, perhaps you think our default assist rate for Giannis Antetokounmpo is low since he started to play more point guard at the end of last season. Well, you can view his season-long assist rate side by side with his assist rate over Milwaukee’s last 10 games:
As you can see, Antetokounmpo’s assist rate over the team’s last 10 games was 27.9, a large 7.8 increase over his season-long mark. You could take the 27.9 number and write it in as his assist rate on our projections tool to see what his projection would update to.
Predicting injury situations
One other good use of the customizable projections is being able to come up with separate projections based on potential injury news. This allows you to be prepared for late breaking news ahead of time, rather than waiting for news to actually hit before having any idea how projections will be affected.
For example, Derrick Favors is questionable on opening night, which, among other things, has a meaningful impact on the amount of minutes that back up PF Trey Lyles plays. Our default projections assume Favors will play, which leads to 21 minutes for Lyles:
As you can see, with 21 minutes Lyles is a poor play on FanDuel. However, we can change his minutes to 31, a reasonable estimate of playing time if Derrick Favors is out, to see what his projection would be:
That potential increase in playing time shifts Lyles from a poor value to a great value. Now, we will update projections throughout the day as news comes in (see section in beginning on when projections will be updated). However, the ability to test out different scenarios ahead of time is very beneficial. Now when the Favors news breaks, we immediately know if Lyles is a good or bad value on FanDuel because we’ve been able to test the projection in both scenarios.
Using the BETA Optimizer & Lineup Builder
Along with the projections, you’ll also be able to utilize our BETA Optimizer & Lineup Builder.
Admittedly, there will be some hiccups along the way as this is a work in progress for us, but we’ve decided to include it along with our projections at no added cost as we work on it.
As you play around with projections on a given day, you have the ability to “Lock” or “Target” specific players:
Locking a player will insert that player into ALL lineups when you run the optimizer. Targeting a player will put that player into the pool of all considered players for lineups when you run the optimizer. Only players that are locked or targeted will be used when lineups are created.
Requirements to run the optimizer:
- You must target at least 15 players
- You must target at least the minimum required players at each position
- You must target enough value/cheaper plays so that it’s possible to create lineups while adhering to the salary cap constraint
- You cannot target more than four players on a single team (we’re working to fix this, but in the short term this is a requirement)
Once this is done you will be able to construct lineups. On the bottom of the projections page a message will alert you to this, and you can also expand “Targets” on the bottom left to view all the players you have locked/targeted:
Click “OPTIMIZE NOW” (bottom right hand corner of your screen). Assuming all requirements have been met, the Optimizer will run and present you with the highest projected scoring lineups from your series of targets & locks:
You can toggle between Grid View (above) and List View:
To go back to the projections, click “TABLE” on the right hand side of the bottom bar: