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CFL DFS Week 18: A Ray of Hope
benyamen
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Only a couple short weeks ago, CFL pricing on DraftKings was looser than my pants after a four day bout with the flu, and many of us were leaving $1500+ on the table even in cash lineups. In what seems like an adjustment in the pricing algorithm for everyone but Diontae Spencer, the vast majority of players have seen significant price increases this week. There are a number of top performers that are priced over 10k and even 11k. If you are hoping to roster some of those high priced quarterbacks or receivers, you’re certainly going to have to play some punts elsewhere. Thankfully, there are some great value plays that have emerged as well.

Before we get into the plays this week though, can we talk about Diontae Spencer for a second? All the way back in week 8 he arrived on the scene with 19 targets and 34.6 points at a $7400 price tag. Since then, he’s only eclipsed even 18 points twice, and was down in single digits last week against the Riders. So a price reduction would seem justified at some point right? In the words of Lee Corso, “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!” His price ROSE on the back of this stellar performance to $8100. I have spent years in formal education studying the depths of the questions that humanity struggles with in theology and philosophy, and nothing has ever stumped me so much as the pricing of Diontae Spencer. It seems that it doesn’t matter what he does, his price just floats around $8000 regardless of the reality the rest of humanity lives in. Someday we will find out that his pricing is secret military code for a black-ops mission in the Eastern Bloc. TO THE PICKS!

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EXPECTED TEAM TOTALS

  • Calgary – 34.5
  • BC – 30
  • Ottawa – 28.5
  • Saskatchewan – 28
  • Edmonton – 28
  • Hamilton – 24.5
  • Montreal – 21
  • Toronto – 17.5

QUARTERBACK

(Preferred plays in bold)

Ricky Ray, TOR – $6,400 ($ or GPP)

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $11,100 (GPP)
Henry Burris, OTT – $9800 (GPP)
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $7600 (GPP)

In what appears to be a scoring glitch caused by uncertainty over the starting quarterback in Toronto this week, Ricky Ray is a great cash game play. While all other quarterbacks are priced up significantly this week, Ray is in company priced well below most team’s backups. The team total doesn’t look hopeful, but I expect that line may move a bit with news that Ray will be back starting this week. With a floor of 15 points, he’s almost a lock for 3x value.

The BC Lions defence is not a great matchup and Mike Reilly is a little better at home than on the road. I think it’s a reasonable week to fade the highest priced player on the slate in favour of players with better matchups.

It’s hard to ignore the quarterback from a team that’s a 17 point favourite with the highest team total of the week at almost 35 points. Thing is, Bo Levi Mitchell’s top scoring game of the year is only 32 points which even then would leave you short of 3x value. Jerome Messam tends to eat into his value quite a bit in high scoring games, and if this game gets out of hand quickly, some of the Stampeders starters may sit in the second half as we get closer to playoff time.

Speaking of playoffs, it looks like last year’s MOP is settling in for another playoff run. After the first quarter of a season that Trevor Harris had at QB for the RedBlacks, not many of us ever thoughts we’d see the return of HENRY. Hamilton still gives up some of the fewest yards per attempt in the CFL, and I expect Burris’s numbers to regress a bit this week in the second half of the home and home series. Still, given his outburst last week, he’s worth a look in GPP’s.

I got a shiver as I clicked CTRL+B before typing the name of the Ti-Cat Turnover Machine. Mr. Masoli carries a bit of risk of total implosion of nuclear proportions, but he draws a good matchup against a fairly porous Ottawa secondary. Despite a number of turnovers last week, he still managed to exceed 3x value, and seems like a great candidate to do the same again. As I mentioned, this seems like a good week to spend down at QB with the prices having escalated as much as they have…

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