Galin Dragiev highlights the best EPL Soccer week 10 DFS picks on DraftKings and Fanduel:
Hello everyone! We are here to welcome the beginning of an era – FanDuel Premier League Soccer! The daily fantasy giant has finally expended into a new sport – soccer. A few months after launching their soccer product in England, they’ve decided to bring it to the US as their first added sport in quite a quite a while. What’s interesting is taking a look at the game itself, and seeing how it compares to DraftKings. Let’s start off with scoring:
- Goals Scored: 15
- Assist: 7
- Blocked shot: 2
- Chances Created: 3
- Red card: -5
- Yellow card: -1
- Clearance: 1
- Fouls Drawn: 0.5
- Interception: 1.5
- Own Goal: -5
- Missed PK: -5
- Five successful passes: 0.25
- Shot on goal: 5
- Tackles: 2
- Goalkeeper CS: 10
- Goals against: -1
- Saved Penalty: 6
- Saves: 3
Let’s tackle goalkeeper scoring first. There is no win bonus, so attacking favorites is less of a factor here. The 10 points for a clean sheet is nice, but as the highest clean sheet percentages are around 50%, 5 points of expected value is not that much. With that in mind, targeting saves here will be key. Three saves get you up to a clean sheet in terms of points and with goals against being only negative one, targeting goalkeepers who are underdogs will be key.
The first thing that screams at you when you look at this scoring is the lack of crosses. Crosses are a staple in DraftKings cash lineups and provide a very predictable, consistent floor for some players. Without crosses, we’ll have to look at other statistics on FanDuel for finding a good floor.
With guys at the upper tier of passing numbers being around 70-80 passes per game, the points you get here from passing are fairly insignificant. With that in mind, try to find players who both pass often and contribute in defensive categories. Think N’Golo Kante (not on this slate). Someone like Kante will get 3-4 points from passes per match and then add on a number of defensive stats to give him a fantastic floor in cash games. This week’s Kante is Jordan Henderson, who leads the league in passing and contributes in defensive categories. Away from home against Crystal Palace, he’ll get a ton of chances at defensive stats, and it makes him a solid cash game target.
Next thing that pops up is the fairly large negative point deductions for own goals, missed penalty kicks, and red cards. All three of those evens are extremely unlikely and impossible to predict, and they’ll be ruining people’s lineup at random moments. Despite that, we can’t really pay attention to them much, as they carry almost zero predictive power.
The second biggest thing is shots on goal being worth five points. On DraftKings, a shot on goal is 20% of the points of a goal (1 for the shot, 1 for the shot on goal), while here a shot on goal is 33% of a goal. Part of that is made up from shots that aren’t on goal, which are 1 point on DraftKings and 0 on FanDuel, but this does two things:
- Increases the upside of forwards
- Decreases the floor of forwards
Shots on goal comprise about 32% of the shots taken, meaning that the other 68% of shots contribute to points on DraftKings and do not on Fanduel. With these changes, focus on getting your floor in other ways, and use shots as an upside finder on FanDuel.
There’s also quite a difference in defensive scoring. There are no clean sheets for defenders, but there are a variety of other stats such as interceptions, clearances, and blocked shots. All of these stats make holding midfielders and central defenders very good options in this game, and there will be a large shift from playing wingers to playing more central players.
With these notes in mind, let’s look at some players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings in this week’s games.
For a further discussion on FanDuel, check me out here…
Zlatan Ibrahimovich – Ibra is just $7,300 this week and that’s just not right. As long as he starts, he’s a cash game target against this Burnley defense, at home. His upside is too big to ignore, and players may be turned off from his last two games where he played away from home against poor opponents.
Kevin de Bruyne – DraftKings has brought all the stars’ prices down and de Bruyne is now just $8,800. De Bruyne is away from home but he’s going to coordinate the attack for Manchester City and provide a safe floor from a variety of statistics.
Christian Eriksen – Eriksen is at $7,900 and that’s criminally low for his game situation and usage rates. Eriksen is on free-kicks and sees a lot of the ball for Tottenham, and a home match against Leicester City will allow him to contribute in a variety of ways in what should be a fast paced game. Eriksen is cash viable. Son-Heung Min is a great pivot off of Eriksen and is on some corners.
Hugo Lloris – A great mix of clean sheet odds, win percentage, and save potential. Playing at home as the favorite. Upside is huge.
Pablo Maffeo – If he starts, the youngster is a must in cash games and will free up cash to spend up on almost anyone else you want.
Troy Deeney and Etienne Capoue – Watford get the glory of facing Hull City – by far the worst team in the Premier League this season. In a home match, they should be on the attack the entire time. Capoue is cash viable and Troy Deeney is a fantastic GPP target. Defender Jose Holebas joins the attack often and is viable as a stack with either of these two.
Steve Mandana - Steve Mandana is cheap, playing at home against a team that won’t stop shooting from distance, and adds in a decent chance at a clean sheet. The upside for Mandana is higher than any other goalkeeper on this slate and he isn’t expensive. Cash game lock. Consider Tom Heaton as an alternative with similar upside.
Philippe Coutinho – Coutinho shoots more than anyone else in the league and his shots on target provide him with a high upside. He should get a lot of space to launch shots on the counter attack against Crystal Palace, and he does enough in other statistics to be cash viable. Consider Jordan Henderson as a safer floor with a lower upside.
Etienne Capoue – Capoue gets the benefit of playing against Hull, who concede the most shots of anyone. That’s a huge upside at 5 points per shot on goal. There is also a great chance at a goal or assist here for the midfielder.
Curtis Davies – The highest upside defender gets a match where Hull will be on the defensive the entire game. He could be the highest scoring player on this slate.
Jose Holebas – Holebas does a little of everything. He is a threat on defense and offense and will provide a safe floor with an incredible upside, especially in this format.
Christian Benteke – Benteke has been good and Liverpool are really suspect in the back. The slate makes me think he’ll be low owned, but he is worthy of GPP consideration.
Aguero and Ibrahimovich – Both could win you a tournament, but I prefer Ibrahimovich because of home-field and weaker opposition.