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EPL Soccer Week 12 DFS: Harry, Harry, Quite Contrary
GalinDragiev
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Galin Dragiev highlights the best EPL Soccer week 12 DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel:

 

The Premier League is back after the international break and I’m here to give you the breakdown!  Let’s take a quick look at the games in the big slate this weekend:

Sunderland – Hull City

Watford – Leicester City

Crystal Palace – Manchester City

Everton – Swansea

Stoke City – Bournemouth

Southampton – Liverpool

Tottenham – West Ham

 

It’s an interesting slate to say the least. There aren’t a ton of giants, but Manchester City do play a weak Crystal Palace side, even though it’s away from home. Liverpool, on the other hand, plays Southampton, who are tough defensively at home. Southampton only allow 9.9 shots per game at home, and considering Liverpool aren’t aggressive on the road as they are at home, this may be a bit of a trap game for them.  That decreases their appeal in cash games, but they do remain GPP targets.

 

Manchester City, on the other hand, is a bit safer. They average 16.2 shots per game on the road while Crystal Palace allow 12.6. That’s better than Liverpool’s situation, but there is still some worry about Manchester City. I think their players are certainly viable in cash games, but I wouldn’t go as far as a game stack.  Let’s take a win at the odds to win:

 

Crystal Palace 16
Draw 22
Manchester City 62
Everton 59
Draw 24
Swansea 17
Southampton 29
Draw 28
Liverpool 44
Stoke 43
Draw 28
Bournemouth 29
Sunderland 45
Draw 29
Hull 26
Watford 35
Draw 29
Leicester 36
Tottenham 63
Draw 22
West Ham 16

 

 

The leaders in win percentage are actually Tottenham, which makes sense in their home match against West Ham. The issue with them is a bit of uncertainty in terms of who starts, but on DraftKings that won’t be a problem with late swap.  Another team to target is Sunderland, who have a pretty insane 45% shot at a win. They also have 6/5 odds to score 2+ goals, which is significant as their players come at a really low price. We’ll talk about that below. Let’s get to some plays.

 

DraftKings

Lee Grant (5,100) – For the price, Grant has a solid shot at a clean sheet and a win, while also having a good shot at several saves. Bournemouth are good enough to have solid possession and put up shots on goal, but I don’t see them winning. Grant is in a good spot.

Fraser Forster ($4,400) – Southampton are solid defensively at home and Liverpool like to shoot from distance a lot. This is a great spot for a $4,400 Forster.  He’ll be my primary tournament goalkeeper.

Danny Rose ($5,600) – At home, one of the best matchups on the slate, and Rose could be on some corners. He is a primary cash target.

Billy Jones ($3,600) – Jones has a low floor but he does enough and has a good enough matchup to be considered in cash games at his price. If you play Jones, you can afford a number of stars. Another option in the Sunderland defense is Patrick Van Aanholt, who may be on certain set-pieces tomorrow. Both are cash viable.

Daryl Janmaat ($4,500) – Worthy of consideration in cash games as Janmaat does just enough to secure a decent floor.

Kevin De Bruyne ($9,000) – With DraftKings pricing down all the star players, guys de De Bruyne are even better plays now. The matchup is a plus for De Bruyne in a game they’re expected to win easily. The rest of the Manchester City supporting cast can be considered in GPP.

Christian Eriksen ($7,900) – At this price, Eriksen lets you fit in a lot of other good players around him. He is on free-kicks and should dominate West Ham. He’ll have a lot of touches in the opponent third, which is generally a good indicator for a high ceiling.

Adnan Januzaj ($5,700) – If he starts, Januzaj should be on at least some set pieces against the worst team in the league, at home. His ceiling is high, but he would be a very risky cash play, although viable.

Ross Barkely ($7,500) – Barkley is expensive but possesses a ton of upside and is in a great spot tomorrow. He is tough to trust in cash, but he’s an excellent GPP target.

Jermaine Defoe ($6,500) – Defoe is a risky forward to play in cash but he is in such a great matchup and at a price that fits the way to build on this slate. He is risky, but usable in cash. He’s a fantastic GPP play. Hull City have been the worst defense in almost every statistical category, and even Sunderland will have their way with them.

Harry Kane ($7,900) – Kane in a similar spot to Defoe, expect he’s way more talented. Again, very risky in cash, but a fantastic GPP play. Tottenham have 1/2 odds to score 2+ goals and Kane is very likely to be involved.

Romelu Lukaku ($8,300) – Another high ceiling forward at a usable price. Great GPP target that is in great form at the moment.

 

 

FanDuel

Adrian ($6,100)  – will face likely the most shots of the weekend and has the higher upside of any goalkeeper on this site.

Wayne Hennessey ($4,900) – Confirm that he starts, but if he does, Hennessey will have a lot of save opportunities.

Danny Rose ($7,800) – See above. Add to it that he contributes in a variety of defensive stats.

Patrick van Aanholt ($6,900) – Very good in defensive stats as well and has goal/assist upside in a plus matchup.

Sergio Aguero ($12,500) – More of an option in GPPs, but the five points per shot on target give Aguero an insane ceiling on FanDuel. He’s also a GPP option on DraftKings.

Kevin De Bruyne ($11,900) / Christian Eriksen ($9,000) – See above.

Junior Stanislas ($7,900) – Contributes in multiple categories and has a solid matchup.

Jermaine Defoe ($6,300) – I actually feel better about Defoe in cash here on FanDuel. I think he’s a lock for a at least one or two shots on goal, which should put him in a great spot to meet value.

Soccer

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