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MLB DFS Strategy: Small Sample Sizes and Adjusting Projection Baselines

MLB DFS Strategy: Small Sample Sizes and Adjusting Projection Baselines
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MLB DFS Strategy: Small Sample Sizes and Adjusting Projection Baselines

Earlier this week, there was a really great question in our forums about evaluating small sample sizes on individual skill sets and it gave me an opportunity to revisit one of my favorite articles I’ve ever read on Fangraphs. The article, which was published in 2009, remains relevant to the work we do when adjusting player baselines and our projections for them throughout the season. It’s a very quick read (within it is a link to the bigger research article most of the data is pulled from and at the bottom you’ll find some similar links that also lead to more updated research – in general the results are similar so I like to link back to the original), but one that helps you understand some of the background on sample size, peripheral indicators we value, and when to start evaluating them as meaningful change.

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