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MLB DFS Strategy: Revisiting xFIP and Hard Hit Rates

MLB DFS Strategy: Revisiting xFIP and Hard Hit Rates
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MLB DFS Strategy: Revisiting xFIP and Hard Hit Rates

One of the best ways to measure a pitcher’s skill set is by looking at their xFIP. xFIP is essentially an ERA estimator that tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on their K, BB and GB rates. In order to do that, xFIP assumes league averages for what we often call the three primary “luck” stats: BABIP, HR/FB rate and LOB%. We often use the gaps between a pitcher’s ERA and their xFIP to help determine if their ERA will rise or fall moving forward, assuming the same skills.

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