NCAA Tournament Saturday DFS Picks
We welcome you to Saturday’s March Madness Special edition of DCoop328’s CBB Daily Plays. Today we will break down the top plays at each price range (based on Fanduel pricing).
Kris Dunn (Providence, Guard) – Over the past few weeks Dunn’s price has seen a historic drop. As a college basketball DFS regular it just feels crazy to see Dunn’s price under $10,000. But there is a reason for this price drop. He is coming off an injury that limited his minutes leading up to the Big East tournament. He then went on to play Villanova and Butler in the tournament, two of the best defenses in the country. Then in his last game against USC, he ran into the foul trouble bug, only playing 27 minutes in their last second first round win over USC. Today, Dunn gets UNC who is the 46th fastest team in the nation. Dunn is finally at full strength and DFS owners don’t need to worry about minutes restrictions, tough defensive matchups, and probably foul trouble as Dunn has very reasonable foul rate (3.4 fouls per 40 minutes). Dunn owners instead get to sit back and watch a top of the line point guard, ranked top 10 in the nation in both assists and steals.
Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga, Forward) - It was tough to find multiple studs today that I really felt comfortable that they would hit value. So I dipped down into the high $7000 range to grab the Gonzaga talented forward. Like Dunn, it just feels odd to see Wiltjer at this price. He is one of the most talented offensive players in the country, being able to back down defenders in the paint as well as sink the deep three (43% from three). Gonzaga runs a two-headed monster, with over half of their shots coming from either Wiltjer or fellow forward Domantas Sabonis. With Sabonis likely getting locked down by Poetl, Wiltjer is going to have to step up and shoot between twenty and thirty times in the game. Wiltjer’s sheer volume, at under $8000 gives you sixty point upside at a relatively cheap price.
Fred VanVleet (Wichita St, Guard) - I honestly did not believe that Wichita State was the real deal until they played Thursday. Facing a very talented Arizona team, VanVleet was by far the best player on the court. VanVleet and Ron Baker take nearly half of the Shockers’ shots but VanVleet also is an elite level peripheral scorer. Similarly to Dunn, he is top 10 in the country in assists and top fifty in steals. VanVleet gets a tough matchup against Miami, but with his assist and steal upside he makes a great GPP play.
Mid-Range Plays ($6000-$7500)
Joel Berry II (North Carolina, Guard) – Joel Berry II is an emotional leader for the Tar Heels and a super safe cash game play for DFS players. He lives between 22-30 fantasy points, right around his 4x value threshold. Berry is not the top option for UNC and does not give you absolute blowup upside but playing the point guard role, dishing out assists, he makes for an extraordinarily safe cash game play.
Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky, Guard) – After a rather pedestrian season, Kentucky is finally starting to hit their stride. Being given a 4 seed was probably a good thing for the Wildcats allowing them to fly under the radar. Zeroing in on Briscoe, he is not utilized a ton in the Cats offense but instead is a great peripheral player. He will likely give you 10 or so points from straight scoring but additionally, as a result of a 12.9 rebounding rate and 16.9 assist rate, he can add 10-20 extra points from peripheral scoring. Similarly to Berry, since he is not a huge offensive player, Briscoe is more of a cash option than a tournament option.
Rodney Bullock (Providence, Forward) – Bullock has been an up and down player all season but currently he seems to be on one of his upswings. He is the third option on a really good Providence team and after taking 11 shots in Providence’s first round matchup makes a great cheap tournament play. Bullock also gets to take advantage of UNC (fastest tempo on the slate). Bullock playing the four for the Friars is also a good rebounder and is surprisingly is on of the elite shot blockers in the country.
Other Mid-Range Plays: Jameel Mckay, Kellen Dunham, Jordan Loveridge, London Perrantes
Value Plays ($4500-$6000)
Luke Kennard (Duke, Guard) – As NBA DFS players know, minutes equals fantasy points. In college basketball terms you have to add another variable. Minutes and a fast tempo equals fantasy points. Kennard recently moved into the starting lineup and his price on Fanduel is yet to adjust. He will likely play upwards of 35 minutes and playing for up-tempo Duke he hits the other variable. Kennard, a three-point bomber, has a 15-20 point floor, just by hitting a few layups, grabbing a few boards, and dishing out a few assists. If he gets hot from behind the arc he has a forty point upside. Kennard is a safe cash game play that gives you huge upside in tournaments.
Alex Poythress (Kentucky, Forward) – Of the Kentucky big man logjam, Poythress is the safest cash game play. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble he is a good lock to play 25-30 minutes. He is a prototypical Kentucky big with outstanding rebounding consistency. As a seasoned vet, he will match up against Indiana freshman OG Anunoby, who is amazingly talented but at this point in his career is not a great defender. Also of note, Skal Labissiere is an amazing but very risky GPP play. He is one of the top point per minute players in the nation and if he gets twenty minutes of play, he will hit value. However, Calipari has been very odd with his minutes and he has no guarantee to play more than 10-15 in any given game.
Anthony Dallier (Yale, Guard) – Since the expulsion of senior captain guard Jack Montague, Anthony Dallier has stepped up. Coming into the tournament Dallier was one of the guys I was looking forward to playing for cheap in the first round. Yale drew Baylor (great defensive team) as their first round matchup and I decided to fade him. Dallier put up a solid game for his price and Yale ended up moving on to the second round. Now Dallier gets a juicy matchup against Duke, that UNC-Wilmington guards Chris Flemmings, Denzel Ingram, and Craig Ponder all took advantage of for huge games.
Other Value Plays: Kyle Dranginis, Rodney Purvis, Skal Labissiere, Derek Willis, Marcus Johnson Jr, Shonn Miller
Good luck today everybody and as always if you have any questions hit me up in the March Madness DailyRoto forums or on twitter @dcoop328dfs!
* statistics courtesy of kenpom.com