Last Call – NHL DFS GPP plays before you’re forced to the golf course
Depending on the team, we’re now 76 or 77 games through the NHL season with just one week left before players unpack their golf clubs or gear up for the playoffs. Regardless of where your favorite team sits, the grind has been real on the players and teams that are already locked into playoff position will start to rest some guys while others will jack up the ice time trying to make a final push. Like your favorite NHL players, I don’t know yet if I’ll be around writing for the playoffs in a couple spots or busting out my golf clubs and focusing on the PGA season. The DFS grind has been real as well, as I’m now more than $100,000 in entry fees deep and have squared off in more than 10,000 head-to-head matches, and constructed more than 500 GPP lineups.
A lot of flak gets thrown at writers that they will lose their edge if they are producing content, but after my most profitable NHL season I can assure you that’s not true, so if any people are aspiring to produce content I would highly recommend it. If anything, this has been the most profitable, the most engaging and most fun NHL season. Also want to take the opportunity to give a big shout-out to Drew, Mike and Adam for bringing me on this season. In addition to giving me a platform to talk hockey, they are a standup group of guys who really take pride in what they do and have a great balance between them, so thank you fellas and the rest of the DR crew.
But anyways, you didn’t come here for all of that, so on to tonight’s picks. Between the motivation and match-ups, we have an almost even split of super favorites and tight matchups.
|NY Islanders||NY Rangers||Columbus|
Usually when a team is going off as -200, you are going to get chalk and heavy ownership in GPPs, but with seven teams approaching that level, we’re going to be looking at much more split ownership than we might on a typical night. Additionally, several of these teams have scoring depth, and then we have some recently popular teams in Nashville and Pittsburgh who will also draw away some of the attention. My thoughts on this become two-fold – if you want to target one of the heavy favorites, I don’t think ownership should be a consideration, just build the best lineup you can – and separately, if you can find value outside of the Super Faves, I think you can grab it at tiny ownership levels. From a cash game perspective, you would be well served mixing and matching some value from the heavy favorites rather than trying to get cute catching lightning in a bottle.My Favorite Faves
The Dallas 1st unit is my top projected line featuring Jamie Benn and Patrick Sharp who will skate together at even strength with Cody Eakin or on the power play with Jason Spezza, John Klingberg and Patrick Eaves. I will roll out an even strength stack or pairing with Klingberg in a couple spots tonight. While Sharp / Benn may be popular after producing 6 points in the last 2 games, I’m hopeful that the presence of other heavy favorites will leave them less owned then they should be considering the spot.
The other favorite I am most attracted to is the San Jose Sharks 2nd line featuring Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau. Both Couture and Marleau have shown upside skating apart this season, and they finally are united at even strength to form a more potent 2nd scoring line for San Jose. I also love the Sharks first unit of Thornton, Pavelski and Hertl, and recommend balancing out your exposure, but I’ll take the discount on San Jose 2. The Sharks just finished dusting Vancouver in Vancouver, and now get the opportunity to do it again at home and give Van their 10th straight loss.
Update (4pm): At least in practice the Sharks have split up Marleau / Couture. Though the 2 will still play power play, I don’t like Marleau nearly as much. Couture may be an OK pairing with Joel Ward at even strength but in light of this news I much prefer SJ1 in all formats. Outside of replacing with SJ1, I would look towards the LA Kings 2nd line and Minnesota Wild 1st unit as potential replacements at higher price tags. If you were looking for an equal $15k replacement, TB1 should fit the bill.
All Dogs go to Heaven
If we buy into the favorites occupying ownership, we may be able to uncover some low owned gems. One trio that peaks my interest is the Senators 2nd line of Mike Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman who each have 6+ individual upside on DraftKings. The Sens have been wonky at times with lines this season, so things could change, but they have a neutral matchup and have finally united 3 of their more talented offensive players. With Minnesota in a must win spot, the Senators will play the role of spoiler and represent the highest difference between their upside and projected ownership in my eyes.
Update (4pm): Ottawa also juggled their lines, splitting up Hoffman and Ryan. I like sticking with Hoffman and Zibajenad, but would pair them with Erik Karlsson if anyone. Ryan could make for a decent pair himself with Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The balance will make them tougher to focus on defending one-line, but part of the allure of Ottawa was the concentrated fire power and we no longer have that.
The other underdog trio I like tonight is skating opposite the Stars in Dallas – Martin Hanzal, Max Domi and Anthony Duclair – who draw a fast paced matchup against a Dallas team that has allowed amongst the most fantasy points in the NHL since February 1st. While I don’t have them projected for insane numbers at close to 9 DK points, if the trio connects for even 1 goal at a combined $12,800 price tag, it can afford you a ton of upside at other spots of your lineup.
While neither of these lines is projected to go off for a monster night, they have the capability to do so. Remember, even with six teams who are -200 favorites, we should expect at least 2 of them to lose on a given night, and capturing the low owned value that pulls of an upset can vault you to the top of a leaderboard.