Daily Fantasy Rundown –January 1st, 2014
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Short Slate Disclaimer:
Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding most short slates altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll.
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Line: Bulls -11
Pace rankings: Denver 4th, Chicago 17th
Total team defensive efficiency: Denver 22nd, Chicago 10th
Defensive efficiency ranks by position
Against point guards: Denver 19th, Chicago 17th
Against shooting guards: Denver 26th, Chicago 2nd
Against small forwards: Denver 5th, Chicago 16th
Against power forwards: Denver 20th, Chicago 23rd
Against centers: Denver 27th, Chicago 5th
Rebounding rate rank: Denver 9th, Chicago 3rd
Turnover ratio (from least to most): Denver 10th, Chicago 13th
Jimmy Butler (CHI) – As a value investor, I really hate using Butler at the peak of his value but he’s worth locking in today. For starters, despite the price tag minimizing Butler’s profit potential, he’s legitimately having a breakout season (meaningful gains in true shooting percentage and usage/assist/rebounding rates) so it’s not like the salary is artificially high based on a few random good/outlier games. Secondly, and this is something we’ve talked about on short slates before, there’s value in Butler’s high floor on short slates where it’s difficult to fill an entire roster’s worth of profitable players. He’s averaging a league leading 40 minutes per game. Thirdly, shooting guard is as scarce as I’ve ever seen it. Your only alternative options to Butler are Arron Afflalo and Ben McLemore, both of whom have very low floors. Finally, the matchup is favorable. Denver is fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards.
Derrick Rose (CHI) – Rose might be the best value in this game (the Sacramento-Minnesota game is the one you want to target for the most part). While there’s some blowout risk, Rose really isn’t priced to need big minutes to hit value given that he’s been capped around 32 all season long. Instead, I’m focusing on his increased aggressiveness. His usage rate over the last 10 games is 34.3 percent with just two games below 30 and a low of 25.8. In the 12 games prior to that the usage rate was 29.9 percent with a usage rate dipping below 25.8 in a quarter of those games. An attacking Rose has a higher floor/ceiling and shows he’s getting more comfortable. He’ll benefit today from facing a Denver team ranked fourth in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency against point guards.