Daily Fantasy Rundown – Daily Fantasy NBA – January 10th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Damian Lillard (POR) – Lillard, who is dealing with a minor back injury, comes with some blowout risk today as Portland is currently listed as a 13 point home favorite. The fact of the matter is you are going to have to embrace some risk in a few places tonight. You’ve got 11 of 14 teams playing on the second night of a back to back and Portland playing on the front end of a back to back. Also, while the Portland spread is the highest at -13, four of seven games tonight possess a double digit spread and the tightest spread is 5.5. While Lillard comes with risk due to the spread and front end of a back to back, that risk becomes a bit more tolerable when you view the risk of tonight’s landscape on the whole. From a matchup perspective, Lillard should have his way with an Orlando team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency against point guards. I’m willing to embrace the risk surrounding Lillard given tonight’s landscape and use him in all formats in order to capture the very high ceiling (47.75-plus DraftKings points in five of 10 contests).
Next in line: Kyle Lowry (TOR) (playing way up in pace but also carries blowout risk in a tougher matchup from a defensive efficiency standpoint; I’ve got Lillard slightly ahead, salary aside, but Lowry is more expensive on most sites anyways)
Jarrett Jack (BKN) – Jack is inching awfully close to finally being priced accurately across the industry. Despite the growing price tag, I think he’s the highest floor (relative to salary) point guards in action tonight. In five games that Deron Williams has missed (I’m including the four minute outing two games ago where he left early due to injury), Jack has averaged 39 minutes with a low of 37. That’s a lot of playing time for a mid-priced point guard, and on top of the increased minutes, Jack has seen bumps to both his usage and assist rates as a starter, further stabilizing his DFS performances. Jack no longer offers free profit, particularly in a slightly below average matchup, but he’s one of the few safe value plays tonight. It’s not a bad idea to complement some risky selections (Lillard for example) with some higher floor selections. Also note that Jack is playing in the game with the tightest spread on the evening (+5.5).