Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 13 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Think Westbrook’s current 35.1 usage rate, 42.8 assist rate, and 1.44 FanDuel points per minute are amazing? That’s chump change. According to NBAwowy, Westbrook has a 42.1 usage rate, 44.6 assist rate, and 1.56 FanDuel points per minute since the beginning of last season when Kevin Durant (out) is not on the floor. Those are absolutely absurd numbers, and aside from the increased per minute output for Westbrook, he benefits from additional minutes when Durant is out (more need for him to be on the floor, reduced chances of a blowout). So, even with a 14 point spread at home, it’s difficult to pass up Westbrook in any format with a matchup against the 76ers without Kevin Durant. On FanDuel, Westbrook’s value threshold is high (49.8 points), but on average 1.56 FanDuel points per minute gets him there in just 32 minutes. That highlights the profit potential here as does Philadelphia’s dead last ranking in defensive efficiency against point guards. While we’re balanced roster construction builders at heart, Westbrook is someone we’re actively going to try to squeeze into lineups.
Next in line: Damian Lillard (POR) (has taken over this Portland offense as expected, giving him a very high ceiling each night; tough to fit in cash games due to opportunity cost, but a fine tournament play)
Rajon Rondo (SAC) – With Darren Collison doubtful and Seth Curry questionable, Rondo is once again in line for massive minutes. He’s played 48, 48, and 44 minutes over the past three games with Collison out. Since joining the Kings, Rondo has averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute. At that rate, he’ll hit his FanDuel value threshold (32.2 points) in 33 minutes on average. Even if Seth Curry plays and George Karl gives Rondo a little bit of rest, he should be right around 40 minutes with Darren Collison out (especially with Rondo playing well). Simply based on math, Rondo is poised to meet value, specifically on sites like FanDuel that have been slow to raise his price tag (priced in line with the average cost of a roster spot). If the volume alone wasn’t enough, Rondo will face a Brooklyn team that is 17th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 25th as a team.