Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 18 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – How to deal with Russell Westbrook is a bit maddening. On the plus side, if using Westbrook, you’re likely getting the proper return on 19 percent of your cap spend on FanDuel, as even at a very high price ($11,500) Westbrook is likely to hit or exceed his value threshold of 51 FanDuel points. After all, Westbrook is averaging an absurd 53.8 FanDuel points per game in 43 games played without Kevin Durant since the start of last season. That’s patently absurd, and now a matchup against the last ranked team in defensive efficiency against point guards (New Orleans) is on tap. On the negative side, Westbrook’s high cost, despite the fact that it returns the proper value per dollar spent, makes roster construction a bit of a burden. The larger the slate (10 games tonight), the more likely you can find adequate cap relief plays to make it work but also the more opportunity cost (some very strong value play options at the point guard position tonight). Ultimately, the looser overall pricing on FanDuel makes Westbrook a core cash game option there, but the decision on DraftKings is much more difficult.
Next in line:
Damian Lillard (POR) – From a per dollar perspective, Lillard is a solid value in a vacuum. His volume is insane. Lillard is averaging 37.3 minutes per game while putting up a 31.3 usage rate and 35.0 assist rate. He’s somehow managed to maintain his true shooting percentage from a year ago and only see a slight rise in turnover rate. However, the $9,200 price tag is moving close to reflective of Lillard’s value. The consistent volume in an expected up tempo game makes Lillard usable in all formats, but opportunity cost (can spend up for Westbrook or down for two very strong per dollar values) has us preferring exposure to him come in tournaments on FanDuel. On sites where it’s a bit tougher to use Westbrook, we’re more prone to consider saving some money by dropping down to Dame.
Dennis Schroder (ATL) – Schroder demonstrated why he was a core play last night. While he didn’t light the world on fire (26.25 FanDuel points), Schroder still hit value despite shooting .273 from the field, playing 29 minutes (about the floor with Teague out), and accumulating zero defensive statistics. It’s going to be difficult for Schroder to not hit value at such a low price tag (28 percent discount) as long as he’s starting at point guard with Jeff Teague out (he and Bazemore are doubtful). On the season, Schroder is averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute in the 88 minutes he’s played with Jeff Teague off the floor. With a minutes total around 30 or even a few higher, he should easily exceed his value threshold of 24.2 FanDuel points. The matchup simply solidifies Schroder as a core value play; Sacramento is an up tempo team, ranking below average in defensive efficiency against point guards.