Daily Fantasy Rundown –January 15th, 2015
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Short Slate Disclaimer:
Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding most short slates altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
Line: Rockets +1
Pace rankings: Oklahoma City 11th, Houston 7th
Total team defensive efficiency: Oklahoma City 8th, Houston 2nd
Defensive efficiency ranks by position
Against point guards: Oklahoma City 25th, Houston 3rd
Against shooting guards: Oklahoma City 6th, Houston 9th
Against small forwards: Oklahoma City 2nd, Houston 13th
Against power forwards: Oklahoma City 22nd, Houston 11th
Against centers: Oklahoma City 2nd, Houston 18th
Rebounding rate rank: Oklahoma City 2nd, Houston 8th
Turnover ratio (from least to most): Oklahoma City 21st, Houston 28th
Kevin Durant (OKC) – It’s a short slate (only two games) but we get the benefit of close/high scoring affairs this evening. Kevin Durant and LeBron James lead the way as top overall plays, even though the edge goes to James who has a significantly better matchup. The small forward position is one to pay up for this evening, since the opportunity cost is high due to James and Durant being available. Durant might not have a great matchup (Houston is ranked second in overall defensive efficiency), but his price is actually discounted on most sites. Not paying full price points for Kevin Durant or LeBron James is an ideal situation to take advantage of, especially on expected close games. Durant and Westbrook lead the Thunder in usage rate (as expected) but with Durant having the easier matchup tonight (Beverley is an elite defender), I expect him to be the main offensive option for the Thunder. If you’re playing cash games, paying for Durant (or James) should be your number one priority.