Daily Fantasy Rundown – DFS NBA – January 17th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Stephen Curry (GS) – Houston ranks second in defensive efficiency against point guards and possesses one of the game’s best defenders at the position in Patrick Beverley. While the Warriors-Rockets game has the highest total of the night (212.5) and a tight spread (Rockets by 2.5), it’s difficult to classify the matchup as plus for Stephen Curry. Curry has done well in two games against Houston this season (27 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and two steals per game) but the numbers are heavily influenced by one monstrous performance when Beverley was out (34 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and four steals). The pace of the game should help mitigate some of the matchup challenges and we expect Curry to surpass his seasonal average in minutes, but the difficulty of the matchup makes him less compelling. Curry ranks as our third best overall play on Saturday night behind DeMarcus Cousins and James Harden, and due to the depth of the respective positions is the least likely of the three to warrant paying up for.
Next-in-line: Chris Paul (LAC) – Paul has a far more favorable matchup than Curry and actually projects closely to Curry tonight. Given the price discount on Paul on most sites and the likely lower ownership in tournaments (as people pay up for Curry for exposure to Golden State-Houston), I think Paul is a superior play to Curry in both cash games and tournaments. Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards and 23rd in overall defensive efficiency. The total of the game (208) isn’t far off from Houston-Golden State and Paul also typically plays more minutes in road games. In three games last season against the Kings, Paul averaged 21.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 9.7 assists.
Brian Roberts (CHA) – Kemba Walker has been ruled out for the matchup against the Pacers tonight. This leaves Brian Roberts as the lone healthy point guard on the roster and one of the three healthy guards overall (including Lance Stephenson who is on a minutes restriction). Gerald Henderson and Gary Neal are banged up but could play, upping the total to five guards, but regardless Roberts will likely have to soak up minutes. Roberts has been slightly less efficient than Udrih in his career (0.72 Fantasy points per minute) but should have a higher minute threshold and a better matchup (Indiana ranks 19th in defensive efficiency against point guards).