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Daily Fantasy Rundown NBA Daily Analysis 2014-15 Premium

1/18 NBA DFS: Pay up for Kevin Durant

1/18 NBA DFS: Pay up for Kevin Durant
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – January 18th, 2014

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Short Slate Disclaimer:

Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding most short slates altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll.

New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors

Line: Raptors -9

Total: 203.5

Pace rankings: New Orleans 24th, Toronto 16th

Total team defensive efficiency: New Orleans 25th, Toronto 22nd

Defensive efficiency ranks by position

Against point guards: New Orleans 15th, Toronto 22nd

Against shooting guards: New Orleans 22nd, Toronto 16th

Against small forwards: New Orleans 30th, Toronto 17th

Against power forwards: New Orleans 9th, Toronto 13th

Against centers: New Orleans 11th, Toronto 14th

Rebounding rate rank: New Orleans 8th, Toronto 16th

Turnover ratio (from least to most): New Orleans 6th, Toronto 3rd

Top Play:

Anthony Davis (NO) – Davis is the top option in this game but with injury concerns and a below average matchup, I’d much rather spend on the big names for Oklahoma City (Westbrook and Durant) in cash games.

Additional game notes: It’s tough to decipher individual value plays in this game until we get more news on the main New Orleans guys that are questionable (Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday). If Jrue Holiday (NO) suits up, he’s immediately in the point guard value play conversation as he’s really the only option in his price range. The matchup is good on paper (Toronto is 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards), but I expect Toronto to improve in that regard as Lowry’s defensive effort should improve now that he doesn’t have to carry the load offensively with DeMar DeRozan back. If Holiday is out, Tyreke Evans (NO) is a strong option in all formats as he’d start at point guard. Some value would also trickle down to Eric Gordon (NO), one of the cheapest viable shooting guard options on the day. I know he was disappointing in a great spot against Philadelphia (slow start by him and hot start by Ajinca hurt his minutes), but Omer Asik (NO) would be my preferred value at the center position if Anthony Davis is out. The other punt options carry considerable risk and the other alternative is overpaying for Nikola Vucevic (especially if Tobias Harris plays) in a tough matchup. For Toronto, James Johnson (TOR) is a possibility as a punt small forward. His minutes are not good but he’s a good per minute contributor in a very favorable matchup (New Orleans ranks 30th in defensive efficiency against small forwards). Normally he’d be just a tournament play in this situation but a three game slate may force your hand. DeMar DeRozan (TOR) is a nice tournament option as he works his way back from injury, and on a site like DraftKings (priced just seven percent higher than the average cost of a roster spot, same price as Oladipo and way cheaper than Evans) he can be considered in cash games.

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