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Daily Fantasy Rundown NBA Daily Analysis 2014-15 Premium

1/19 NBA DFS: John Wall is too cheap on Monday

1/19 NBA DFS: John Wall is too cheap on Monday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – January 19th, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftDay

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS)/Chris Paul (LAC)/John Wall (WAS) – I’ve listed the three point guards at the top of the totem pole on Monday and I’ve listed them in order of performance I’d project if there were no blowout concerns. Unfortunately, all three point guards are in games where they are favored by 12 points or more. Curry has the lowest minutes base to work off of, so he’s likely the least impacted by a blowout when projecting him, but he also comes with the highest cost. There isn’t much value in the price point, but I think he’s least impacted by the blowout risk. Wall, meanwhile, is heavily discounted around the industry but comes with the highest minutes base. Paul has the best matchup of the group as the Celtics rank 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards. Each point guard has something working in their favor, but when concerned with blowouts I’m most likely to focus on price. This makes Wall the most compelling option for cash games if paying up at the point guard spot. Last season, in just 32.5 minutes per game, Wall averaged 20.3 points, four rebounds, nine assists, and 1.8 steals per game against the 76ers. It’s a different year and the 76ers are a bit better defensively, but it highlights Wall can remain effective in limited minutes.

Value Plays:

Brian Roberts (CHA) – Roberts was a nightmare in his first spot start for Kemba Walker but we’re going to stick to the process. Roberts has averaged 0.75 Fantasy points per minute in his career and he played 35 minutes of regulation last time out. Without any adjustment for role or opponent, we’re looking at a baseline projection around 26 Fantasy points for Roberts. He happens to face a Timberwolves defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 30th in overall defensive efficiency.  Overcome the effects of recency bias and take advantage of the minimum price tag offered around the industry.

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