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Daily Fantasy Rundown NBA Daily Analysis 2014-15 Premium

1/20 NBA DFS: Tim Duncan worth the risk on a short slate

1/20 NBA DFS: Tim Duncan worth the risk on a short slate
Mike.Leone
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – January 20th, 2014

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Short Slate Disclaimer:

Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding most short slates altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat

Line: Heat +8

Total: 199.5

Pace rankings: Oklahoma City 10th, Miami 30th

Total team defensive efficiency: Oklahoma City 10th, Miami 23rd

Defensive efficiency ranks by position

Against point guards: Oklahoma City 25th, Miami 27th

Against shooting guards: Oklahoma City 11th, Miami 4th

Against small forwards: Oklahoma City 2nd, Miami 16th

Against power forwards: Oklahoma City 22nd, Miami 3rd

Against centers: Oklahoma City 2nd, Miami 8th

Rebounding rate rank: Oklahoma City 2nd, Miami 27th

Turnover ratio (from least to most): Oklahoma City 20th, Miami 25th

Top Plays: Bother Russell Westbrook (OKC) and Kevin Durant (OKC) are quite clearly the top plays at their respective positions and I’d try to fit one of them into my lineups on a short slate, although squeezing two in is probably a bad idea due to salary constraints. Normally Durant comes with less opportunity cost at the small forward position but with Kawhi Leonard and Luol Deng feasible value plays, I actually think it’s Westbrook that comes with less opportunity cost tonight, particularly on sites requiring just one small forward. Miami’s pace isn’t favorable for Westbrook but the quality of the matchup is as Miami is 23rd in team defensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards.

Dwyane Wade (MIA) is the top play at shooting guard but his high price tag, below average matchup and persistent health concerns make him more of a tournament option for me. I think there are enough shooting guard options from the SA-DEN game that you don’t need him for cash games, although if you have the cap room it’s fine.

Value Plays: Hassan Whiteside (MIA) has a difficult matchup against an Oklahoma City team ranking second in defensive efficiency against centers, in part due to their number two ranking in team rebounding rate. He carries risk between the matchup and volatile playing time, but I think it’s a risk worth taking on a short slate as his fantastic per minute numbers (1.20 FanDuel points per minute) provide him with most points per dollar upside. Teammate Mario Chalmers (MIA) is a solid second point guard option. It’s a pretty neutral matchup (Oklahoma City is 17th in defensive efficiency against backcourt players) but the price is favorable and aside from the expensive Russell Westbrook, there are very few viable point guard options. If Wade is out, he becomes a must play on tonight’s slate and Chris Bosh (MIA) would receive strong cash game consideration as well (just a tournament option now). Luol Deng (MIA) is the cheapest of the cash game playable small forwards. I’m really not on the Oklahoma City role players for cash games as Miami’s weakest spots defensively come at the positions that Westbrook and Durant play. Dion Waiters (OKC) is a tournament option.

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