Daily Fantasy Rundown –NBA DFS – January 23rd, 2015
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Russell Westbrook (OKC) – I think Westbrook is a tad underpriced or at worst fairly priced across the industry as his tag doesn’t fully reflect his expected minutes totals in a close game tonight (35-plus, he’s averaging 33.3 on the month and 31.8 on the season). Westbrook has played 35-plus minutes in all close games recently and the spread between the Thunder and the Hawks tonight is 4.5. Despite a matchup against an Atlanta team ranked fifth in defensive efficiency against point guards, I don’t think Westbrook has too much trouble approaching value thresholds tonight due to the expected amount of minutes. He’s not a primary value play, but with some cheap options representing some of the best value plays this evening, his salary isn’t prohibitive.
Stephen Curry (GS) – I generally try not to overthink blowout risk as blowouts are often difficult to predict. There are exceptions, particularly once spreads start climbing to 12-plus points. Curry and the Warriors are definitely one of these exceptions. They are currently 16 point home favorites over the Kings and have routinely blown teams out at home, winning by at least double digits in 10 straight home games. As a result, I’ll likely avoid Warriors players in cash games. In tournaments, Curry is worth taking a shot on and hoping the game stays somewhat close. The Warriors have a crazy high team total (117.5) and Curry (1.28 FanDuel points per minute) has a nice individual matchup (Sacramento is 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards).
Langston Galloway (NYK) – Galloway’s price tag is gradually rising but not quick enough. He’s priced at $4,600 on FanDuel (31 percent less than the average cost of a roster spot). At that price tag, he needs about 23.4 FanDuel points to hit value. He’s currently averaging .82, putting him at that threshold with 28.5 minutes of playing time on average. When you consider he’s played 28, 31 and 34 minutes the past three games, is blowout proof and is matched up against an Orlando team ranking 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards, he has a very high probability of hitting value thresholds tonight. Sure there’s some risk (had a 10.2 FanDuel outing in 28 minutes two nights ago), but with the opportunity cost pretty low at point guard tonight Galloway will be a player I look to target in all formats.