Daily Fantasy Rundown –NBA DFS – January 24th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is Star Fantasy Leagues
Damian Lillard (POR) – Often times on a short slate the most difficult aspect of lineup construction is finding expensive players worth paying up for. I think this is the case again tonight as there are a variety of cheap options at each position that are cash game viable. With that in mind, it makes sense to pay up for one of the top point guards. My preference is for Lillard who will have to carry a heavy offensive burden with Portland decimated by injuries. On the season he has a 26.7 usage rate and 19.3 assist rate but those numbers jump respectively to 28.8 and 28.2 with LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum off of the floor. On top of the increased offensive responsibility, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Lillard play a few extra minutes. He’s averaging 36.3 minutes per game on the season but 38.2 minutes per game over his last five. As we’ve noted a couple of times this week, Lillard hasn’t had huge games with Aldridge out as a dip in efficiency has cancelled out the increased usage but ultimately I’m siding with the opportunity.
John Wall (WAS) – Wall is right behind Lillard this evening. I think there’s less upside here with Wall playing on a team at full strength and conceding the home court edge to Lillard. However, his price point is pretty favorable around the industry. That’s not the case on Star Fantasy Leagues (58 percent higher than the average cost of a roster spot and roughly $1,500 more than Lillard) but is on FanDuel (32 percent higher) and DraftKings (47 percent higher) where just an average game puts him close enough to value thresholds to be worth rostering on a short slate. The Wizards have the highest team total on the night, and despite Portland’s number eight ranking in defensive efficiency against point guards, I think their team defense could drop off a bit due to injuries to key players. That’s particularly true of Lillard who will have to expend a lot of energy on the offensive end (we saw this with Kyle Lowry and Toronto when DeMar DeRozan was out).
Langston Galloway (NY) – While I’m not opposed to using both Lillard and Wall tonight, it’s difficult to pass up on Galloway who represents one of the evening’s best value plays. He’s stupid cheap on Star Fantasy Leagues (70 percent less than the average cost of a roster spot) and an absolute must play there. He’s more expensive on other sites (31 percent less on FanDuel) but still a great value there. Galloway has easily hit value at that price point in three straight games as he’s averaging a solid .85 FanDuel points per minute and has played 31, 34 and 31 minutes the past three games. With Jose Calderon out tonight, Galloway’s minutes and offensive responsibility have nowhere to go but up so it makes sense to keep trotting him out there at a stagnant price point, particularly since the matchup is not overwhelming (Charlotte ranks 20th in defensive efficiency against point guards).