Daily Fantasy Rundown –NBA DFS – January 25th, 2015
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Chris Paul (LAC) – Paul is a top play that I’m going to try and get exposure to in my cash games this evening. While he’s fairly priced across the industry and the individual matchup is just okay (Phoenix is ninth in defensive efficiency against point guards), there are other factors working in Paul’s favor. Most importantly, like with the Phoenix-Houston game on Friday, this is a game you’ll want to find some way to get exposure to. It’s a DFS dream as the total is 222 with a tight three point spread. In the first two meetings between these teams the scores were 121-120 (overtime) and 120-107. Paul put up 43.25 and 58.25 DraftDay points in those contests; his value threshold on DraftDay tonight is 43.5 points. Aside from wanting to squeeze in a star player in this elite game environment, paying up for a second point guard makes a lot of sense as you’ve got two chalk cheap value options tonight (Augustine, Bass) and mid-tier value plays at the forward and center positions.
Next in line:
John Wall (WAS) – As mentioned in Paul’s blurb above, it makes sense to pay up for a second point guard tonight. Wall is a nice alternative to Paul if you don’t quite have the cap room for Paul. While he’s on the road and on the second night of a back to back, he too will benefit from positive game flow. The Wizards face a Nuggets team ranked fourth in the NBA in pace in a game with just a 2.5 point spread. The increased possessions for Wall as a result of playing up in pace aren’t reflected in his price point and his efficiency could also increase due to the matchup (Denver is slightly below average in terms of defensive efficiency against point guards). Wall also benefits from being slightly underpriced as his $16,700 salary on DraftDay (50 percent more than the average cost of a roster spot) puts him falling just shy of value thresholds with simply an average game. He’s particularly cheap on FanDuel (32 percent more than the average cost of a roster spot).
DJ Augustin (DET) – I know some of our subscribers don’t like going “chalk” but a lot of times the chalk play is the chalk play for a reason. In Augustin’s case, he’ll be highly owned but is a must play in cash games and near must play in tournament formats as well. Augustin will step into heavy minutes as Detroit’s starting point guard with Brandon Jennings out. Augustin is averaging .78 DraftDay points per minute and has a value threshold of around 23 DraftDay points, meaning that on average any minutes total of 29 or higher will put him at or above his value threshold. That’s likely Augustin’s floor moving forward with Jennings out (particularly the day after the injury with the team not having time to prepare new bodies for the rotation), and his per minute numbers could increase too with the starting role. You won’t find anyone safer than Augustin at his near minimum price across the industry.