Daily Fantasy Rundown –NBA DFS – January 29th, 2015
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Short Slate Disclaimer:
Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding most short slates altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll.
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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is Star Fantasy Leagues
Brandon Knight (MIL) – Knight has played big minutes the past two games (35 and 38) and that’s expected to continue tonight. With the Bucks shorthanded up front, they’ll likely have to play small (something playing against Orlando should allow them to do) and that indirectly solidifies Knight’s playing time. Based on the high expected amount of playing time alone, Knight is the top point guard option. Even based on his season long average of 32.4 minutes per game, no other point guard averages more Star Fantasy Leagues points per game than Knight. Once you throw in the matchup (Orlando ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 24th in overall team defensive efficiency), Knight emerges as not only the top play at the position but the best value as well.
Derrick Rose (CHI) – While there’s some blowout risk in a matchup against the Lakers, the spread in this game isn’t as high as I expected (CHI -9). With the game being on the road and Coach Tom Thibodeau not exactly known for being conservative with his player’s minutes, I’m less focused on the blowout risk and more focused on a rejuvenated Derrick Rose in an elite matchup. Surprisingly, Rose’s current 32 percent usage rate barely trails the 32.2 mark he put up in 2010-11 for his career high. He has really gotten back to attacking the basket, which is evidenced by looking at his shot data. Over the season’s first two months, Rose attempted 35.3 percent of his shots within 10 feet from the basket. In January, 45.6 percent of Rose’s shots have come within 10 feet of the basket. His attacking ways and increasing minutes totals (averaging 33.4 minutes per game in January compared to 30.2 on the season) should allow him to hit value and potentially profit in an elite matchup against the Lakers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards and lack any semblance of a rim protector. Statistically, Carlos Boozer has been their best rim protector, allowing a 51.9 field goal percentage at the rim, which ranks 54th of 101 players averaging at least 20 minutes per game and three field goal attempts at the rim per game.