Daily Fantasy Rundown – Daily Fantasy NBA – January 3rd, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is Star Fantasy Leagues
Top Play: John Wall (WAS) (prefer him over Chris Paul who has severe blowout risk and Damian Lillard who is overpriced with Aldridge back; on most sites I’ll use the value plays listed below over Wall in cash games)
Trey Burke (UTA) – The Jazz as a whole are in an incredible spot tonight, having pretty much every team factor we look for working in their favor. They are playing way up in pace against Minnesota (fourth in the NBA in pace). They are facing an awful defensive team (Minnesota is 29th in team defensive efficiency). Rotations should be tight. The spread in this game is currently even, and the Jazz are thin right now with Alec Burks out, both of Burks’ replacements (Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher) also out and Enes Kanter now out. Burke in particular will benefit as he has slightly higher usage and assist rates with Burks out. Perhaps most importantly, he’s played at least 37 minutes the in three of the past four games, leaving him underpriced based on his 32.2 minute average. Couple the increased role with the matchup and Burke is a valuable industry wide play costing less than the average roster spot on all sites.
Derrick Rose (CHI) – Initially I had Rose as a tournament option only in a game that carries some blowout risk but now that Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler have been ruled out he graduates to a value play. The absences of those two guys helps Rose in a variety of ways. For starters, the blowout risk is dampened without their best player and another key rotation member. Secondly, Rose will have more opportunity for Fantasy points with Butler gone. His minutes should be more secure (will have to use backup point guards at the two spot) and perhaps more importantly, Rose’s usage/assist/rebounding rates should all be higher. Rose has amazingly played just 77 minutes all season with Butler off of the floor. That creates an unreliable sample size but it’s nice to see that the rates we expect to increase were all greater than his seasonal averages over that 77 minute span. Finally, the matchup is favorable as Boston is second in the NBA in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency against point guards. Also, consider Aaron Brooks (CHI) as a risky cheap option who is probably better used in tournaments. The Bulls will use multiple point guards on the floor given the matchup and a lack of wing depth to cover Butler/Dunleavy.