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1/30 NBA DFS: Kyrie Irving is an elite option with LeBron doubtful

1/30 NBA DFS: Kyrie Irving is an elite option with LeBron doubtful
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Daily Fantasy Rundown –NBA DFS – January 30th, 2015

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftDay

Top Play:

Kyrie Irving (CLE) – One of the key themes of today’s Rundown will be targeting players receiving big bumps in opportunity as a result of a core teammate being out due to injury. The first of these is Kyrie Irving who benefits massively if LeBron James is out (currently listed as doubtful). Irving has a season long usage rate of 25.5 and assist rate of 18.6. When LeBron James is off the floor, those numbers jump to 36.2 and 24.2 respectively and even the small rebounding rate that Irving has sees a slight uptick. Not only are those increases massive, but LeBron James has missed enough time that the sample size with him off the floor is reliable. Even with Irving’s price tag jumping following his monster outing on Wednesday, he isn’t priced accurately given his baseline with James out (particularly cheap at just 45 percent more than the average cost of a roster spot on DraftDay). In the nine games that LeBron James has missed this season, Irving has averaged a whopping 23.3 field goal attempts en route to 41.3 DraftDay points per game (value threshold is about 40.3 points tonight). Simply based on the increased opportunity Irving is my favorite point guard option tonight but also consider that his Fantasy numbers should be boosted by a matchup against Sacramento. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards, 26th in team defensive efficiency and eighth in the NBA in pace (and climbing).

Value Play:

Mario Chalmers (MIA) – Chalmers, like Irving, is underpriced as his baseline doesn’t account for Dwyane Wade being out. When Wade is off the floor Chalmer’s usage rate rises (from 20.0 to 23.1) as does his assist rate (from 21.7 to 26.8). On top of more offensive responsibility Chalmers generally sees an uptick in games that Wade does not play. He averages 35.6 minutes per game in those contests, a large increase from his season long average of 30.9 minutes. In total, Chalmers has played 10 games this season without Wade and has averaged 33.45 DraftDay points. That easily exceeds his value threshold of around 27 DraftDay points and Chalmer’s salary on DraftDay (14.5 percent discount to the average cost of a roster spot) is actually a touch more expensive than on most sites. He’s a great option to pair with Irving, giving you two guys primed to profit with one costing less than the average cost of a roster spot and one costing more.

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