Daily Fantasy Rundown – Daily Fantasy NBA – January 7th, 2015
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
If you see a featured site below that you haven’t tried before, click on our links for the best initial deposit bonuses!
Chris Paul (LAC) – Paul has a similar expected output to Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry, but he’s cheaper across the industry and thus the top play you want to target if paying up at the point guard position. He’s had two poor performances in his past three outings, putting his price at just $9,900 on FanDuel (it’s rarely under $10,000). The reduced price meets an excellent matchup as Paul takes on a Lakers team ranked eighth in the NBA in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards. The only concern here is the possibility of a blowout (10.5 point spread), but I think this game stays just close enough all the way through to make Paul a viable option in both cash and tournament formats tonight.
Jarrett Jack (BKN) – With Deron Williams doubtful, Jack will continue to start at point guard and play heavy minutes. In the games that Williams has missed this season, Jack has played 44, 38 and 37 minutes while recording 36.8, 29.2 and 36.8 FanDuel points. On the season Jack averages .76 FanDuel points per minute, so a 38 minute role puts him at 29 FanDuel points on average, right on top of his value threshold. There are some reasons to expect Jack to increase his per minute efficiency as well. Since starting the last nine games, Jack has usage and assist rates 22.8 and 26.9 respectively. Those are increases from his season long usage and assist rates of 20.8 and 23.8 respectively. Also, Jack is playing way up in pace (Boston is second in the NBA in pace), which will lead to more possessions than usual for Jack and thus more opportunities to rack up Fantasy points.
Kyrie Irving (CLE) – If Irving is active tonight, he’s a value play option on the higher end of the price spectrum and a cheaper alternative to paying all the way up for Chris Paul. His current salary across the industry doesn’t fully reflect his role with LeBron James off of the floor. Irving’s season long usage rate jumps from around 23 percent to 33 percent when James is not on the floor. Meanwhile both his rebounding and assist rates improve as well. The result is a large increase in expected value for Irving and the increased offensive responsibility gives him a very high ceiling despite a difficult matchup against Houston (Patrick Beverley is a great on ball defend while Dwight Howard is an elite rim protector). UPDATE: Irving will play tonight.