Welcome to the 2018 Greenbrier Classic DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip,
News and Notes
The Old White TPC Course hosts A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier Classic this week and the course will play again as a 7,286 yard Par 70. The field this week is headlined by Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson, but much like last week’s event lacks field depth particularly outside of the Top 20 players this week. Overall the course last year was 8th on tour in par-adjusted distance and has above average fairway widths, all of which contributed it to playing perfectly average relative to par.
The closest weather tower on windfinder is in close proximity to the golf course. The current conditions look hot with light precipitation late in the day on Friday. If that does come to fruition, it is possible that the early AM wave will get slightly softer conditions both days, but the wind forecast is generally mild on Thursday and Friday. Saturday winds look potentially more impactful for Showdown slates with gusts hitting 20 MPH+ and possible wave advantages based on the scoring conditions. Because of the conditions Saturday, it is at least worth monitoring the forecast leading into the event to see if any angles open up on Thursday and Friday.
Rounding out this section is macro roster construction. Last week was expected to be a relatively tough scoring environment, and with a small field for the invitational, we recommended building around either Rickie Fowler (maximize raw projection) or Francesco Molinari (maximizing 6/6 odds). The scoring environment proved easier than previous years, 6/6 percentages were high, and Molinari’s victory catapulted balanced Molinari builds to the top. This week the field is a full field and 6/6 percentages will be lower. Additionally, the scoring environment will yield plenty of birdies on the weekend. Our optimal lineups this week favor building around Ryan Moore, Jimmy Walker or Charles Howell III to optimize on 6/6 probabilities and even then can only generate an 11% chance of getting all six golfers through to the weekend. Running on pure fantasy projections suggests a similar macro approach, and building more balanced this week seems like the right approach for cash games with paying up more of a tournament consideration only.
Brandon Hagy has withdrawn.
Course Fit and Course History
The chart below shows the strokes gained composition at this event compared to tour averages. The Greenbrier should play as a pretty standard event but as noted the above average length and wide fairways have given slightly more weight to strokes gained off-the-tee in recent years, with 17.4% of strokes gained versus the tour average of 15%, with most of this being pulled from the approach. These numbers are subtle, and we would not over-rate course fit this week and would focus more on the overall golfer skill.
As always, there are a few discrepancies between DataGolf’s fantasy projections and the finish probability model that may warrant a manual adjustment to the model.
- Joaquin Niemann is rated 14th in the probability model and just 29th in the fantasy model. We would recommend adjusting his fantasy projection +5 DK points to be closer to Xander Schauffele.
- Ryan Blaum is rated 33rd in the fantasy model and just 46th in the probability model.
- Kevin Chappell is rated 18th in the fantasy model and just 40th in the probability model. His long-term skill is high but his form is bad missing 5 cuts in 7 events.
- Rory Sabbatini is rated 27th in the probability model and worth of a +2 DK point bump
- Jason Kokrak and John Huh are also potentially overvalued in the fantasy model