Welcome to the 2018 John Deere Classic DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
News and Notes
Weak field, easy course, low winning score relative to par. No we’re not running back the Greenbrier Invitational, we’re talking about the John Deere Classic being played at TPC Deere Run. The event played as the 13th easiest on tour last year and will play again as a 7,268 yard Par 71, meaning birdies should be plentiful.
The closest weather tower on windfinder is in close proximity to the golf course in Colona. The current conditions look warm with no precipitation on Thursday and Friday so there will be no wave benefits. We do now offer Showdown Projections and there may be weather on the weekend so be sure to monitor for those contests.
Brandt Snedeker, Alex Cejka, Abraham Ancer and Will Mackenzie have withdrawn. Do not roster them.
From a macro perspective, the easy scoring conditions favor more balanced roster builds to maximize projected fantasy points and getting 6/6 guys through the cut. Optimizing both on fantasy points and T20 probabilities shows a preference for starting with Ryan Moore or Steve Stricker versus paying up for Zach Johnson on DraftKings, despite his track record. We prefer building a bit more balanced in cash games but given the necessity of owning the event winner to win GPPs, both a balanced approach and “pay up” are in consideration for tournaments. Given only one to three lineups, I would still go balanced. With the large field and generally weak mid-range players, the best lineups we can build are roughly 11% to get all six players through to the weekend. It wouldn’t surprise us to see 5-10% be the threshold for “the field” on CutSweats this week and doing better than that will put you in a great position of leverage.
Course Fit and Course History
The chart below shows the strokes gained composition at this event compared to tour averages. Last year 37.7 percent of strokes were gained on approach and 40.2 percent of strokes were gained putting compared to tour averages of 34.8 percent and 40.2 percent. The historical averages are a bit more neutral but in general, a hot putter will be required to contend and strokes gained approach should be leaned on more heavily than off-the-tee play.
As always, there are a few discrepancies between DataGolf’s fantasy projections and the finish probability model that may warrant a manual adjustment to the model.
- Harold Varner, Johnson Wagner, Joel Dahmen, JT Poston, and Nick Watney are all seen 10+ spots more favorable by the finish probability model in their Top 20 odds than they are the fantasy model
- Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Blaum, Scott Piercy and Blayne Barber are all seen 10+ spots more favorable in the fantasy projections