Welcome to our 2018 PGA Betting Tips and Blog
One of the more under-rated features of our partnership with DataGolf is our PGA Tour betting tools which include a head-to-head and 3-Ball betting tool in addition to a too for Outrights and Top 20 Betting Markets. In this blog, we will highlight some PGA Betting Tips and positive expected value (+EV) betting opportunities. To access the full suite of tools and information you can always join us as a subscriber. In general, Top 20 markets offer the most value and have the lowest implied rake while both outright and head-to-head markets have a greater vig.
If you are looking for a place to wager, we have an affiliate deal with MyBookie. They currently offer outrights, top 5s, top 10s and tournament matchups for golf. I have highlighted a few bets that our H2H betting tool find profitable below.
Quicken Loans Invitational
Blog Totals: Outrights: 0-4, -1 units). T20 (5-23-0, +11.35 units). H2H (9-3-1, +6.66 units)
Last Week: Outrights (0-4, -1 units). T20 (0-8-0, -3.5 units). H2H (2-2, -0.37)
Last week was rough. Casey collapsed for an outright loss and 24-1 longshots Ryder and Malnati also finished a shot outside a big return. Back in the saddle though.
Billy Hurley III is showing as a +EV play at 17-1 to T20 with 9.82% odds in our probabilities. Add in the home course narrative for Hurley and this is a fun rooting interesting. Hurley III offers $0.76 of expected value per dollar wagered. Ted Potter is another selection who offers $0.60 of expected value per dollar wagered at a +700 price on Sportsbook and 20% odds to T20. Our card isn’t filled with spots this week but there are 20 +EV spots in our betting tools you can explore.
We have an affiliate arrangement with MyBookie so I feel obligated to post a few H2Hs that I personally have bet over there. DailyRoto favorite Francesco Molinari is available versus JB Holmes (-145, 9% EV) and Byeong-Hun An over Patrick Rodgers (-130, 8% EV) are two full unit plays that we like this week. I also see a lot of value in Jimmy Walker (+100) over Aphibarnrat. I bet Walker at a worse number.
Blog Totals: T20 (5-15-0, +14.85 units). H2H (9-1-1 +7.03 units).
Last Week: T20 (2-3-0, +14.5 units). H2H (2-0, +1.54)
We took the week off last week from the blog, keeping the picks and probabilities behind the paywall for the US Open, and because we were away at DailyRotoPalooza. But we are back this week for the Travelers Championship with a couple hand-selected value bets.
It is rare that we find a few +EV outright plays on the card, but this week we like Bill Hass (180-1), Patrick Cantlay (30-1) and Emiliano Grillo (50-1) as +EV outrights and even see a little value in Paul Casey at 21-1. Consider those 0.25 unit selections.
Not going to lie, it is a little grimy when you run the names in the betting model this week. Bill Haas +550 is probably the safest selection with about $0.33 of expected value per $1 wagered and T20 probabilities of 20.59%, along with JJ Spaun +750. But most of our portfolio this week consists of 0.25 unit or lower sprinkles that can be found at longshot odds on Sportsbook. Names like Shawn Stefani, Sam Ryder, Martin Flores, Tom Lovelady, Peter Malnati and Benjamin Silverman make our card this week at +2400 to T20 but should only be bet with strict bankroll management principles. Their odds are half of that on Bet365.
JB Holmes -120 over CT Pan – 3% EV
Luke List -125 over Beau Hossler – 3% EV
Bill Hass -125 over Austin Cook – 3% EV
Daniel Berger 100 over Bryson Decheambeau – 8% EV
FedEx St Jude Classic
Blog Totals: T20 (3-12-0, +0.35 units). H2H (8-0-1, +7.79 units). EDIT: H2H is 7-1-1 +5.59 units. Accounting error!
Last Week: T20 (0-5-0, -2.75 units). H2H (1-1, -0.35 units)
With so many withdrawals this week due to US Open qualifying we are making plenty of “fun” bets with longshots including a few players that are +2700 to T20. Billy Hurley III, William Mackenzie are all offering huge odds on Sportsbook despite lower odds on Bet365 where they range from 13-16 to 1. DataGolf’s probabilities only show a 10% chance of them finding the upper end of the leaderboard but the reward is handsome and they offer more than $1 of expected value per $ wagered. Consider them 0.25 unit plays. For more conservative bettors Stewart Cink (18.77% to T20, +800), John Huh (18.51% to T20, +800) and JT Poston (15.71% to T20, +800) are some other solid values. In total, we show some 40 golfers with positive expected value in this week field.
A couple of our favorite head-to-head matchups are Brian Gay -130 over Braden Thornberry and Luke List -130 over Aphibarnrat both available on Sportsbook.ag. Gay offers $0.27 cents of expected value against the Ole Miss prospect so there is some margin for error even if the data on Thorberry is limited. List meanwhile offers 7% expected value and while you may be paying 2x in ownership in DFS you only have to pay a bit of juice in H2H markets.
Last Week: T20 (0-4-0, -2.5 units). H2H (3-0, +2.9 units).
Blog Totals: T20 (3-7-0, +3.1 units). H2H (6-0-1, +5.84 units).
Adam Hadwin is available at +500 on Sportsbook and offers $0.49 cents of value per $1 wagered with 25% odds in our probabilities model to finish inside of the Top 20. Zach Johnson projects similarly and can be found at a +475 price offering $0.38 of expected value. Both players setup positively at an event that requires strong approach game. For longer shot bettors, Jim Furyk (+1350), William McGirt (+1350) and Trey Mullinax (+1350) are 0.25 unit plays that have 12-14% odds to finish inside of the Top 20 and provide a solid return on investment.
In the head-to-head matchups we like Adam Scott -115 over Charl Schwartzel for the tournament with 8% expected ROI. We also see a little bit of value (6%) in backing Tiger Woods +110 vs Rickie Fowler in the tournament matchups. While the head-to-head edges are often smaller, they do offer more consistent returns.
Fort Worth Invitational
Last Week: T20 (1-2-0, +4 units).
Blog Totals: T20 (3-6-0, +5.6 units). H2H (3-0-1, +2.94 units)
Another solid week of run good for our T20 bets thanks to JJ Spaun, but each week is a new opportunity.
Stewart Cink – Available at +1050 on Sportsbook, Cink has 17.40% odds to T20 in the DataGolf probabilities and offers nearly a 100% expected return per dollar wagered. Even if our projections on Cink are inflated he is still a tremendous value (and is only +800 on Bet365). Cink has adequate distance and his strokes gained approach metrics seem to be a decent fit. Cink is worth of a T20 wager this week.
Pat Perez – Perez has now missed a few straight cuts, but all of that has been weighed and his T20 odds are still 29.33% in this week’s invitational field. Perez can be found for +325 and offers 24 cents of value per dollar wagered this week. Perez’s long-term skill makes him worth of a wager this week.
Longshots Brandon Harkins and Wesley Bryan (0.25 units) both offer +1400 odds and a 65 cents of value. Individually, they only have 11% odds to T20 so collectively they are less likely to hit than Perez, but as a duo you have 22% odds to return a 7-1 investment. Harkins and Bryan will be in the pool of bets we make this week at big prices.
Louis Oosthuizen -110 vs Cam Smith (7% expected return)
Emiliano Grillo -125 vs Xander Schauffele (9% expected return)
Koepka +125 vs Webb Simpson (7% expected return)
AT&T Byron Nelson Classic
Last week: T20 (1-2-0, +0.35 units). H2H (2-0, +2.2 units)
Blog Totals: T20 (2-4-0, +1.6 units). H2H (3-0-1, +2.94 units)
Steve Stricker missed a six foot putt on the 18th last week, as we narrowly missed out on cashing a 12-1 bet, but it was still another profitable week for our selections. This week we have a weak field, but can still navigate it to find opportunities.
Top 20 Opportunities
Bill Haas – Currently available at +350, Haas is 27% to T20 in this weak field and offers 20 cents of value to backers. While Haas also projects nicely as a DFS play, he will be highly owned in that format leaving the most profitable way to get your exposure in the betting markets.
JJ Spaun – JJ Spaun is available at +550 on both Sportsbook and Bet365 and offers $0.20 of value per dollar wagered with 19.03% odds to place. Spaun is another example of a player who has not found a rhythm yet this season but posted eight Top 20 finishes during his 1st full season on tour last year.
Billy Hurley and Steve Wheatcroft (0.25 units) – Our longshot T20 recommendations this week are Billy Hurley III (+2000 Bet365) and Steve Wheatcroft (+3000 on Sportsbook) who project with 10.24% and 8.24% odds to finish inside the top 20. While these bets are unlikely to hit according to our probabilities, they are mispriced in betting markets. Wheatcroft and Hurley both have middling PGA results in the 2018 season but do have two Top 20 finishes on tour since 2017 and a nice reward if they cash.
Still to come….
The Players Championship
Last Week: T20 (1-2-0, +1.25 units) H2H (1-0-1, +0.74 units)
Top 20 Opportunities
Steve Stricker – Currently available at 12-1 on Sportsbook despite just 6-1 prices in other places like Bet365, Stricker has odds of 24.33% to T20 per DataGolf’s model and offers more than $200 of expected value for every $100 wagered. Even if you believed DataGolf was 2x too high on Stricker he’d still offer value as a profitable wager. Yes, he is hashtag old, but Stricker has 5 Top 20 finishes in his previous 16 events including elite field competitions like the US Open and Masters in 2017, and Open Championship in 2016. Stricker has Top 20 finishes in 2 of his past 6 Players Championships.
Tiger Woods – It is rare that you can find a profitable line to bet on Tiger Woods but it looks like Bet365 is offering that opportunity this week with a +187 line to T20 compared to his probabilities of 39.26%. Tiger’s tee-to-green game was on point last week gaining more than seven strokes on the field and if his putting clicks he could contend. A $100 bet on Tiger offers $17 of expected value, so while there are better bets on the board we can’t resist the opportunity to tout Tiger in a +EV spot.
Scott Stallings and Vaughn Taylor (0.25 units) – While not glamorous names, and more likely to miss the cut (60%) than top 20 (8.5%), the prices available offer a solid value and everyone loves a longshot. Sportsbook is offering 24-1 prices setting these up as profitable wagers with more than $100 of expected profit per $100 wagered. It is very unlikely that these wagers hit, making them small dollar plays, but the return is strong carnage occurs at TPC Sawgrass and either of these longshots finds their way into the top of the leaderboard.
Alex Noren offers 8 cents of value at a +115 line versus Zach Johnson. Noren is a slight favorite in our head-to-head tool and finished 1st in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green at last year’s Players Championship. Tiger Woods can also be found at a +105 price in a tournament matchup versus Hideki Matsuyama. Our probabilities give Tiger a 55.8% chance to win this four-round matchup and $0.19 cents of expected value per dollar wagered. Two chances to bet on Tiger in one week, profitably? Count us in.
Wells Fargo Championship
Top 20 Opportunities
Stewart Cink – Opened at 14.5 to 1, now 9 to 1. 15% odds to T20. Stewart Cink opened at a line offering massive value but still has some value with 9 to 1 odds on Sportsbook. Cink has 6 Top 20s over his last 35 events and has adequate length for Quail Hollow. While his price has dropped he still offers around 35 cents of value per $1 wagered.
Adam Hadwin – At +325 Adam Hadwin still offers some value with our probabilities at 27.58% to Finish Inside the Top 20. This works out to an expected value of 17 cents per $1 wagered (72.38% chance to lose $1, $27.58% to win $3.25. 0.7237*-1+0.2758*+3.25=0.173). Hadwin is coming off of 5 straight finishes inside of the top 25 and enters in good form gaining strokes on the field in 8 straight events. While he isn’t the prototypical Quail Hollow contender his strong approach, around the green and putting game make this a favorable wager.
Sam Burns is currently offered at +550 on Bet365 and a favorable wager there with 18% odds to T20 and offering 17 cents of value. While his price on Sportsbook (+375) and in DFS ($7500 on DraftKings) offer less value, we would prefer to get exposure to Burns this week in the betting markets. While Burns has just 4 PGA Tour starts (MC-8-12-49) under his belt, our PGA Probabilities also weigh his recent web.com performance (59-MC-2-20-1-33) and the 21-year old prospect is close to grabbing his tour card.
Jason Day offers 8 cents of value as a -135 favorite versus Masters Champion Patrick Reed. The betting markets have over-adjusted on Reed off of his win and we like Jason Day in this tournament match-up. Similarly Webb Simpson offers value at a +105 price and a slight favorite on his home track versus Tony Finau. We prefer Finau narrowly in DFS where his birdie and eagle making abilities generate better fantasy scores but view Webb as a slightly better head-to-head play. Our head-to-head betting tools let you simulate either one-round or four-round match-ups to more properly account for the variance in a single round of golf.
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