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2019 3M Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
2019 3M Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
DREWBY
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Welcome to the 2019 3M Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

The 2019 3M Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities, which has previously hosted some Senior Tour events but will welcome the PGATOUR for the first time. The course will play as a Par 71 at 7430 yards long and features plenty of water hazards which is fitting for a state known for its lakes. The water hazards will add some variance – bad approach shots will be penalized much more this week than they were last week – and make the course tougher but it is still expected to play as an overall easy scoring environment. The winning score should be -15 or better and could creep close to the -20 marks that we saw last weekend in Detroit. When the scoring environment is markedly easier, strokes gaining putting drives a much higher deviation in scoring and that has been the case in the 2019 PGA season with other events such as the AT&T Byron Nelson and last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Putting could drive as much as 45 percent of the deviation in scoring which introduces a level of randomness (putting is hard to predict week to week) and also could reward putting as much as strong approach play. For punters who fancy a longshot, perhaps a good opportunity to capture a 100-1 or greater bomb and perhaps a week where longer FRL plays could come through. For DFS if building a statistical model to complement our projections I would focus more on approach play and long-term putting (150+ rounds) to help to identify some players who could start to pour in the ample amount of 10-20 foot birdie opportunities that could present themselves. With a bit of guesswork on course fit and no course history, we can also lean on some recent form to help understand the field.

Strongest Recent Form Outright

Brooks Koepka 4-1-50-2-57

Hideki Matsuyama 23-16-6-21-13

Rory Sabbatini 5-6-27-43-3

Jason Day 24-23-CUT-32-8

Joaquin Niemann 31-27-31-5-5

 

Strongest Recent Form Relative to Baseline

Jason Dufner +1.63 strokes

Cameron Tringale +1.32 strokes

Rory Sabbatini +1.27 strokes

Joey Garber +1.14 strokes

Joaquin Niemann +1.10 strokes

There is also some carry over from last week’s field and a few of the notable performances include Cameron Tringale (3rd in field T2G, 5th overall), Nate Lashley (outright winner), Danny Lee (7th T2G), Patrick Reed (8th T2G) and Sungjae Im (9th T2G).

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