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2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

Masters Sweat Promotion

We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:

  1. Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
  2. Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
  3. Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
  4. We’ll also be offering a guaranteed sweat spot to the winner of our subscriber free roll in SLACK

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!

News and Notes

The 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be played at Bay Hill – a Par 72 course measuring just over 7400 yards long. The course last year played as the 15th toughest on tour in difficulty relative to par and ranked 30th in fairway width and 22nd in par adjusted distance. The current wind forecast shows moderate wind speeds but no clear benefit to a certain tee time wave.

Talor Gooch and Tiger Woods have both withdrawn from the field. Bud Cauley and Scott Brown were late adds to DraftKings. There were rumors that Matsuyama had withdrawn but those have not been confirmed and he is now listed on the tee times page.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a 125-man field with a cut to T70 and ties, meaning a higher percentage of this week’s field will play on the weekend and optimal lineups can expect roughly 2.1 golfers to finish inside of the Top 20 of the field.

As a reminder, DataGolf has revamped the projection model for 2019 and there are a few key changes:

  • More alignment with the finishing probability
  • Moving towards a decay model for Current Form and Long-Term form to weigh rounds
  • Incorporation of specific strokes gained metrics based on the predictive power of each metric

We’ve also revamped our betting tools and optimizer for the 2019 season and our optimizer now supports Showdown.

Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast – Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview

Course Fit and Course History

From a descriptive perspective, the historic event data from DataGolf shows that the event has historically over-indexed in strokes gained off the tee and approach relative to the tour average, with slightly less emphasis on putting. While a strong (or hot) putter will always be required to win the course fit definitely favors ball strikers over strong putters.

Looking at the names who have fared best over the years in DataGolf’s course history index re-affirms that course fit. Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Emiliano Grillo and Adam Scott are a few of the names inside the top 10 that excel tee-to-green but have been historically below average putters. Combining those with the best approach player of all time in Tiger and an improved putter but all around ball striker Justin Rose and the course fit is mostly supported by course history.

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