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2019 Byron Nelson Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
2019 Byron Nelson Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 Byron Nelson Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

The 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson is hosted at Trinity Forest Golf Club, a course that hosted the event for the first time last year after it moved away from the TPC Four Seasons Resort. Last year Trinity Forest played as a Par 71 at 7380 yards long that ranked 11th on tour in par adjusted distance and featured the 3rd widest fairways on tour. The course touts itself as an “American Links” style format which features no rough, lots of native area, and plenty of bunkers, but as noted has among the widest landing spots on tour on average. Aaron Wise won the inaugural event at -23 and even shooting 3-under par was not good enough to play on the weekend. The closest windtower shows sustained wind in the mid-teens for the opening two days with gusts getting just above 20 mph which could make the closer play slightly tougher and bring the winning score down a few strokes, but regardless there should be plenty of fantasy scoring to be had and generating lineups with a high percentage of golfers playing through the weekend will be critical. Similarly, the added fantasy scoring will make for an interesting R4 Showdown as the pristine weather conditions could lead to lots of fantasy scoring, guys coming from deep on the leaderboard, and generally diminish the value of the placement bonuses on rosters.

Going for the Green AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview

Byron Nelson Championship Course Fit

From a descriptive perspective, the DataGolf historic event data shows that the Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest over-indexed in strokes gained putting compared to a traditional event, as well as a slightly added emphasis on SG OTT. Oddly, six of the ten best players in approach through two rounds ended up missing the cut. The top tee-to-green players last year were Adam Scott (T9), Aaron Wise (Win), Keith Mitchell (T3), JJ Spaun (T3), Branden Grace (T3), Jordan Spieth (T21), Kevin Tway (T9), Kevin Na (T6), and Matt Jones (T13). The event seems like it should set up as a pure bombers course (longer, massive fairways) and while Wise, Mitchell, and Tway fit that profile the other names don’t, and we saw plenty of bombers flameout last year. With only a one-year sample size and the DataGolf course fit data showing only a small deviation in scores from SG categories I’m inclined to only make subtle changes, if any, based on course fit.

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