Welcome to the 2019 Greenbrier Classic DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip,
News and Notes
Perhaps the most relevant news is that the PGATOUR has a new cut line rule for the 2019-20 season with the cut to T65 and ties after the conclusion of play. For players that make the cut, there will be no more MDF (Made Cut Did Not Finish) which means everybody who makes the cut will be guaranteed two rounds over the weekend. From a fantasy perspective, it isn’t really going to matter that much in tournaments. You will still need the winner and 6/6 through the cut most weeks and particularly in large field GPPs you will still need the majority of your golfers inside of the Top 20. The rule change could benefit balanced rosters * slightly * in a small field or cash format. Regardless, our projections have cut probabilities factored in so that work has been done for you.
This week’s weeks Military Tribute at The Greenbrier is hosted by The Old White TPC which is a Par 70 that plays 7286 yards long and is among the easier courses on tour relative to par with a winning score typically around 15-under. The course is relatively long (8th longest in par adjusted distance) and given the slightly cooler temperatures in September versus July could play a little bit longer. The course also has had historically friendly fairways with some of the widest fairway widths.
With the new season come new PGATOUR players, many fresh off the KORN FERRY TOUR as well as Tom Lewis from the Euro Tour via Korn Ferry Tour. Whew. This should be a good source of edge for DailyRoto subscribers as DataGolf’s projections use weighted adjustments of all rounds across tours including Korn Ferry, Euro, and PGATOUR. Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Henrik Norlander, Lanto Griffin, Harry Higgs, Tom Lewis, Doug Ghim, Scott Harrington and Cameron Percy are a few new names to watch early in the season (in no particular order). While others lean on narratives or brand value we can lean on math. Last year’s preview on this properly flagged Im and Champ as swing season names to target, with a variety of other hits and misses.
Course Fit and Course History
The chart below shows the strokes gained composition at this event compared to tour averages. The Greenbrier should play as a pretty standard event but as noted the above-average length and wide fairways have given slightly more weight to strokes gained off-the-tee in recent years, with 17.7% of strokes gained versus the tour average of 15%, with most of this being pulled from the approach. These numbers are subtle, and we would not over-rate course fit this week and would focus more on the overall golfer skill.
Scott Stallings (+0.12), Ted Potter (+0.12), David Lingmerth (+0.10), Robert Streb (+0.10) and David Hearn (+0.10) have some of the strongest course history at The Greenbrier relative to their baseline skill each warranting a 0.10 stroked per round or greater adjustment. For a more traditional course history, Russell Henley (+1.81 CH Index), Kevin Na (+1.62), Tony Finau (+1.58), and Brandt Snedeker (+1.54) have the strongest overall index.
It is a weird time of the year for recent form. For some recent graduates of the Web.com tour, the recent form includes multiple events over the previous few weeks while for lower-ranked PGATOUR players that did not qualify for the FedEx Playoffs or had an early exit the “recent form” could include nearly a month without a competitive round of golf.
- Jason Kokrak 32-6-12-19-14 (last round 8/25)
- Anirban Lahiri MDF-47-53-7-5 (last round 8/25)
- Tom Hoge 36-6-MDF-7-20 (last round 8/25)
- Byeong Hun An 13-32-3-38-28 (last round 8/18)
- Joaquin Niemann 10-CUT-13-30-31 (last round 8/18)
- Fabian Gomez 13 (PGA) – 7-45-51-2
- Grayson Murray 2-29-23-11-7
- Zac Blair 10-1-24-45-9
- Scott Harrington 28-11-2-14-43
- Harry Higgs 22-1-CUT-23-11
I’m not sure exactly how that changes my approach this week other than perhaps leaning a bit more on longer-term form for some of the more established vets.