Welcome to the 2019 Honda Classic Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
Masters Sweat Promotion
We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:
- Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
- Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
- Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
- We’ll also be offering a guaranteed sweat spot to the winner of our subscriber free roll in SLACK
Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!
News and Notes
The 2019 Honda Classic will be played at PGA National – a Par 70 course measuring 7140 yards long. The course played as the 2nd toughest on tour last year and with a weakening strength of field, the scoring average should again be above par with a cutline around +5 or higher. The current wind forecast looks relatively mild wind conditions but the course will still play tough, particularly the closing stretch infamously known as “The Bear Trap” where the 15th-16th-17th can wreak havoc on your cut sweats. Last year the 15th claimed 37 water balls and the 17th docked golfers with 62 penalty strokes. In total the tournament has the four narrowest fairways on tour, water on the majority of holes and still ranks 29th in par adjusted distance meaning above average length and accuracy with irons will both be required.
Our optimal lineups this week based on made cut odds have just 13.9 percent odds of getting all six golfers through to the weekend and if trying to generate 6/6 lineups favoring a more balanced roster build will increase your made cut odds as anchoring your lineups on tournament favorite Justin Thomas will decrease your made cut odds to closer to 12 percent. The counter-argument for that is that with the challenging scoring environment and weaker field, the “finish points” will make up a higher percentage of the DraftKings scoring. This becomes even more noticeable as the Par 70 features just two Par 5s and will limit the number of eagles and birdie streaks. In cash game formats its likely that the finish points will create more separation for your rosters than getting six golfers through to the weekend, while in tournaments you will always need all six guys to place high on the leaderboard.
As a reminder, DataGolf has revamped the projection model for 2019 and there are a few key changes:
- More alignment with the finishing probability
- Moving towards a decay model for Current Form and Long-Term form to weigh rounds
- Incorporation of specific strokes gained metrics based on the predictive power of each metric
Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast – Honda Classic Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview
Course Fit and Course History
From a descriptive perspective, the historic event data from DataGolf shows that the event the previous two seasons shows that it has over indexed in strokes gained approach heavily relative to the traditional tour event, with putting playing a much lower role in the variation in scores. As covered above, Strokes Gained Off the Tee is still important but this week Strokes Gained Approach carries more than 2.5x the weight.
Looking at golfers who have performed well here in the past and there is alignment with those sentiments. Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Luke List and Adam Scott are among the names who pop in DataGolf’s historic course history index adjusted for field strength. All of these players have above average length but strong approach games to help avoid the water hazards around PGA National. Strokes Gained Off the Tee, which features both distance and accuracy but overweights distance, is still a good metric to use but I’d be cautious of a prototypical “bomber” like Brandon Hagy who rates 9th in the field in SG OTT but falls outside the top 100 in strokes gained approach.