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2019 Houston Open DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
2019 Houston Open DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 Houston Open DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip,

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

Pinned Note:

Perhaps the most relevant news is that the PGATOUR has a new cut line rule for the 2019-20 season with the cut to T65 and ties after the conclusion of play. For players that make the cut, there will be no more MDF (Made Cut Did Not Finish) which means everybody who makes the cut will be guaranteed two rounds over the weekend. From a fantasy perspective, it isn’t really going to matter that much in tournaments. You will still need the winner and 6/6 through the cut most weeks and particularly in large field GPPs you will still need the majority of your golfers inside of the Top 20. The rule change could benefit balanced rosters * slightly * in a small field or cash format. Regardless, our projections have cut probabilities factored in so that work has been done for you.

The 2019 Houston Open will be played at GC of Houston, as a Par 72 at just over 7400 yards long. The course is middle of the road in both par adjusted distance and fairway width and plays as one of the 10 easiest courses on tour relative to par. While the Eagle volume isn’t high, there are thousands of birdies to go around leading to a high fantasy scoring environment. Like the majority of the swing season events, our expectations for a winning score will be upwards of 20-under par.

Course Fit and Course History

The chart below shows the strokes gained composition at this event compared to tour averages from DataGolf who powers our fantasy projections.

This event has historically seen more deviation in scoring driven from off the tee play compared to a typical event, with a slightly lower emphasis on approach play, around the green play and putting. With 20.5 percent of strokes gained deviation from SG OTT this actually projects as one of the more OTT heavy courses that we will see in the rotation. Obviously, with just 20 percent OTT you are still seeing the majority of strokes gained driven via putting and approach, but it may be worth some small tweaks based on strong OTT play.

Russell Henley has the strongest course history at this event with True Strokes Gained of +2.53 based on DataGolf’s course history tool. Daniel Berger (+2.11), Henrik Stenson (+1.86), Graham Delaet (+1.38) and Pat Perez (+1.37) all have also performed in the Top 5 for golfers with 16 or more rounds that are in this week’s field, and all have outperformed their personal expectations by at least +0.50 strokes.

Recent Form

Here are the players leading into this event with the strongest recent form with their most recent round in parenthesis:

  • Brian Harman (6-52-3-14-18) – 10/6
  • Henrik Stenson (4-02-27-3-17) – 9/22
  • Lanto Griffin (7-13-11-17-18) – 10/6
  • Sebastian Munoz (43-7-1-33-CUT) – 10/6
  • Harris English (CUT-26-3-6-33) – 9/29
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