Welcome to the 2019 Mayakoba Golf Classic DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip,
News and Notes
The PGATOUR returns to El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico as Matt Kuchar looks to defend his title that infamously led to the Caddie pay controversy with El Tucan. As if a title defense (and overpriced in the field) isn’t hard enough, you can add in a questionable crowd reception and that it is Kuchar’s 2019-20 PGATOUR season debut to the list of reasons to be concerned about Kuchar. Some of DataGolf’s work has suggested that shorter players and ball strikers could thrive as El Camaleon has been one of the larger outlier courses that benefited more accurate players.
El Cameleon was one of the bigger outlier courses in our analysis of course fit from a few months ago, with bombers under-performing their baselines and accurate players over-performing theirs historically. pic.twitter.com/vOycDoPVU1
— data golf (@DataGolf) November 11, 2019
If the course does favor the shorter players we would be interested in targeting golfers that gain strokes via approach which correlates well with the ability to be accurate off of the tee. One of the things to be cautious on if trying to target “course fit” using recent form is that many of the courses haven’t been played with shotlink data so if you are using weighted stat models to create your “course fit” it may be better to study longer-term skill to determine fit, and then layer that fit over the current form.
DataGolf history event data helps capture the Top 10 performances at El Camaleon which aligns with the course fit narratives that we discussed.
With the swing season underway there are varying degrees of form for our top-end golfers but there are a few players who have logged recent rounds under their belts and played consistently. Below are the hottest players in the field per DataGolf.
- Lanto Griffin (11-17-18-1-18) Nov 3rd
- Victor Hovland (2-10-11-31-41) Oct 27th
- Denny McCarthy (31-18-9-9-15) Nov 3rd
- Kevin Kisner (12-9-9-66-28) Nov 3rd
- Billy Horschel (37-4-64-6-24) Nov 3rd
As we have consistently seen, strong current form typically gets priced quickly into the betting markets and the DraftKings salaries, along with player ownership for DFS. All of the players listed above cost $8000 or more on DraftKings with Kisner and McCarthy carrying the more reasonable price tags.