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2019 NHL DFS Season preview

2019 NHL DFS Season preview
TheNumbersGuy
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2019 NHL DFS Season Preview

The NHL season opens on Wednesday with a 4-game slate and kicks off a long stretch of NHL DFS that will carry through the middle of next summer with the Stanley Cup playoffs. If you are new to DailyRoto this NHL season we offer Daily NHL DFS Projections with Site Specific Value Rankings (M-SAT), as well as our Top Stack Rankings (M-SAT) for each week’s main slate contests. We also have our Live Premium Subscriber Chat where you can sweat games, talk strategy or tilt your goalies. We are also upgrading our NHL Lineup Optimizer which features Stacking Rules, Showdown support, and more features coming soon. Our optimizer and projections will allow you to easily build correlated lineups for tournaments.

If you are a returning customer the biggest change is that we won’t be offering premium podcasts this season. We will still provide analysis via Podcast or Articles for some of the NHL DFS slates but will also be mixing in tutorials or strategy pieces, the majority of which will be free, so the Projections, Optimizer and Stack Rankings will be the nuts and bolts of the premium product this year.

Join us with NHL Premium for the upcoming season.

With a long offseason and lots of changes, TheNumbersGuy and Drewby broke down each team’s major personnel changes coming into the 2019 NHL DFS season highlight new faces, projected vegas point totals, and fantasy spin on each team’s roster.

Our article focuses mostly on skaters and goalies, but there have also been NHL coaching changes for the Anaheim Ducks, Edmonton Oilers, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, LA Kings, Philadelphia Flyers (Vigneault), and Florida Panthers (Quenneville). As DFS players are aware, coaches can dramatically swing fantasy impact buy burying top fantasy talent in the 3rd and 4th lines, or by giving 4 minutes of PP time and 25 minutes to top defensemen. These are teams we’ll be monitoring player usage for particularly close in the early season.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Boston Bruins

  • New Faces: Brett Ritchie
  • Vegas Point Totals: 101.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Bruins roster is mostly stable from a team that made a run to the Stanley Cup finals. The biggest question marks are whether Coyle will play wing on the 2nd line or 3rd line center, and if it will be Debrusk or Krejci will slot onto the BOS1 PP Unit. Boston should generally remain a team to avoid stacking against and the Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand line will remain a top-ranked stack regardless of matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

  • New Faces: Victor Olofsson, Jimmy Vesey, Brandon Montour, Colin Miller, Marcus Johansson
  • Vegas Point Totals: 84.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Olofsson was a point per game player in the AHL and it remains to be seen how the Top 6 shapes up for Buffalo but early reports have him skating alongside Eichel. Both Olofsson and Vesey are worth monitoring for usage early, as will the usage of Marcus Johansson either at wing or center. While Dahlin will continue to progress and see more ice time, the addition of Brandon Montour and Colin Miller will also create depth making Buffalo an improved defensive club.

Detroit Red Wings

  • New Faces: Filip Zadina, Taro Hirose
  • Vegas Point Totals: 75.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Red Wings continue their rebuild and project to be a team to pick against again early in the season. Prospects Zadina and Hirose look like they could slot into the top-nine early this season but outside of X-Larkin-Mantha and Athanasiou, there won’t be consistent options. Monitor Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski usage early (Cholowski may start in the AHL) in the season for punt value on D if they are slotted for Top PP work.

Florida Panthers

  • New Faces: Brett Connolly, Sergei Bobrovsky
  • Vegas Point Totals: 97.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Connolly is slotted for a top nine role and will be relevant if he plays on their Top 6. We’re also hoping to see more consistent playing time for high-ceiling shooter Frank Vatrano. Bobrovsky should give the Panthers a boost in net and with a high expected team point total, Bobrovsky should maintain his role as a strong fantasy goalie. With improved goaltending and a generally strong roster, Florida shouldn’t be a team you target stacks against as frequently as you may have in previous years. The Top 6 for Florida will generally be in consideration on a nightly basis.

Montreal Canadians

  • New Faces
  • Vegas Point Totals: 88.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Not a lot has changed in Montreal so we will be mostly watching the progression of a young team with a decent Top 6. We could also see some early punt value on Victor Mete as a top pair defensemen but there isn’t a lot of change expected for a team with limited roster turnover.

Ottawa Senators

  • New Faces: Connor Brown, Artem Anisimov, Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, Erik Brannstrom
  • Vegas Point Totals: 68.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Senators will be one of the worst teams in the NHL, a favorite for a lottery pick, and a team that is popular to stack against. Chabot will always be a high floor / ceiling defenseman and there should be cheap prices on some young players that rotate through the Top PP unit, but the Senators easiest path to upside is through blocked shot bonuses on DraftKings. The most exciting prospect to watch for the Senators is Erik Brannstrom who appears set to crack the opening day roster and was a key piece in the Mark Stone deal. Brannstrom has offensive talent but Chabot’s expected heavy usage on the power play could limit Brannstrom’s upside.

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • New Faces: Patrick Maroon
  • Vegas Point Totals: 111.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Projected to be one of the top teams in the conference the Lightning were typically a matchup to avoid in 2018 and should end up similar for the season. Brayden Point’s injury is probably the biggest news and could make Tampa slightly more susceptible early in the season. Point is expected to be sidelined through October which opens up an opportunity for Anthony Cirelli or Yanni Gourde as a 2nd line center, and one of them or Patrick Maroon on the Top PP unit.

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • New Faces: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci
  • Vegas Point Totals: 103.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Leafs played a fast fantasy-friendly style of hockey in 2018 and while there has been some roster turnover they should play the same way in 2019. Nazem Kadri’s departure hurts the Leafs but could help fantasy owners providing more consistent correlation on the power play, while Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci and an expanded role for Jake Muzzin should be a relatively neutral defensive offset for Zaitsev, Hainsey, and Gardiner. We’re also projecting a bounceback year for William Nylander slotted into a consistent scoring role on the Leafs Top 6. The question usually won’t be IF you stack the Leafs, but rather which Leafs line to stack and how many to play in total. The Leafs open the season with a juicy matchup against the Ottawa Senators.

 

Metro Division

Carolina Hurricanes

  • New Faces: Ryan Dzingel, Erik Haula, Jake Gardiner, James Reimer, Joel Edmundson
  • Vegas Point Totals: 95.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Hurricanes should be competitive again this year. Always the corsi champs, the Canes are often a decent matchup for opposing goalies given their high volume of average quality shots, and this could be particularly relevant with the new save bonuses for 35+ saves on DraftKings. Jake Gardiner looks slotted for early Top PP unit work with Justin Faulk traded to the Blues, and whether it is Gardiner or Slavin or Hamilton there is fantasy talent on the blue line in the right situation. Ryan Dzingel, Nino Niederreiter, Teuvo Travainen, and Andrei Svechnikov provide a lot of wing talent and our projections will prefer whichever duo gets slotted with Sebastian Aho.

Columbus Blue Jackets

  • New Faces: Alexandre Texier, Gustav Nyquist
  • Vegas Point Totals: 84.5
  • Fantasy Spin: On paper few teams got worse to the same degree as the Blue Jackets, particularly the post trade-deadline version. Duchene, Panarin, and Bobrovsky were among the most sought after free agent commodities and will be replaced by expanded roles for Korpisalo, Texier, and newcomer Gustav Nyquist (who to be fair seems like the type of player Torts will totally bury and frustrate DFS players). The Blue Jackets will lean heavily on Jones and Werenski for minutes, and the Top 6 has enough talent to be relevant but this is definitely a team trending in the wrong direction that we’ll want to pick on more in 2019.

New Jersey Devils

  • New Faces: Nikita Gusev, Jack Hughes, Wayne Simmonds, Jesper Boqvist, PK Subban
  • Vegas Point Totals: 90.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Hall saw his season end early in 2018 and rejoins a team expected to improve in 2018 and become a playoff contender. Nikita Gusev is a wildcard coming over from the KHL that looks to slot into Top 6 minutes, and while KHL transfers have been volatile he’ll get the benefit of skating alongside either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, the latter who has 60-point upside as a rookie. Hughes will be immediately fantasy relevant and it will be interesting to see where his early season pricing lands him. PK Subban will get an alpha-level workload and his presence will suck some of the value out of Sami Vatanen, Will Butcher, and Damon Severson whose value was tied to PP time.

NY Islanders

  • New Faces: Derrick Brassard, Semyon Varlamov
  • Vegas Point Totals: 91.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Islanders overachieved in 2019 and while regression is expected (and hit them in the playoffs) Barry Trotz will still have them playing competent defensively. The Isles rolled four lines more than any club last year limiting some of the offensive upside. The Isles Top 6 is still relevant but the slower style of hockey usually leaves them as low ceiling plays unless their ice-time starts to tilt more heavily to start the year.

NY Rangers

  • New Faces: Artemi Panarin, Kaapo Kakko, Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox
  • Vegas Point Totals: 87.5
  • Fantasy Spin: While the Rangers don’t project to make the playoffs they did land some of the biggest pieces with Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba. Panarin will skate on a fully correlated top line with Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich while Trouba should step immediately into 25 minutes and Top PP work. The Rangers also have exciting prospects, Kaapo Kakko was the 2nd overall pick last year and has as good of a chance as anyone to put up 40+ points and Adam Fox will try to match the early impact Cale Makar had on the Colorado Avalanche in the 2019 playoffs. Fox’s usage may start off low, but his talent is high particularly if he is able to land any PP work. Adam Fox icetime is a key trend to monitor throughout the year. The Rangers will be more fun to watch this year but should still give up ample chances against, and could be a low rent version of Leafs game stacks.

Philadelphia Flyers

  • New Faces: Kevin Hayes, Matt Niskanen
  • Vegas Point Totals: 91.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Flyers were middle of the road in xGF/60 and xGA/60 last year and so while their GA/60 at 5v5 had them one of the 3rd worst teams there is a reason for optimism purely on puck luck reversing. Kevin Hayes is a good depth addition at center and while the Flyers will eventually regret Matt Niskanen’s contract it shouldn’t be this year. Layer in some positive regression and we expect the Flyers to live up to their middle of the road team metrics this year. No longer a whipping post, but far from a juggernaut.

Pittsburgh Penguins

  • New Faces: Dominik Kahun, Alex Galchenyuk, Brandon Tanev
  • Vegas Point Totals: 95.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The value on the Penguins has so frequently hinged on whoever rides alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Enigmatic Phil Kessel was dealt to Arizona for high upside shooter Alex Galchenyuk. Galchenyuk figures to see an extra two minutes of ice and will rotate on and off the Top PP at different points of the season. If he gets consistent time there matching Kessel’s production wouldn’t be shocking. Late in the season, we saw Justin Schultz eat into Letang’s Top PP time and that will also be important to monitor. The Penguins should give up ample chances, have a weak defense corps, and Sidney Crosby leaving preseason with a foot injury that we *think* should be fine is a friendly reminder just how thin the Penguins are at forward.

Washington Capitals

  • New Faces: Radko Gudas
  • Vegas Point Totals: 98.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The biggest changes for the Capitals were depth and salary-cap related. Andre Burakovsky is gone to Colorado, and Niskanen was dealt to the Flyers for Radko Gudas, but for fantasy purposes, it is mostly the same old Caps. Both of the Top 2 lines should feature 2-man power play correlation and can be stacked as full lines or with John Carlson, and any line changes will mostly be a rotation of those players barring injury. The Capitals project as a below-average defensive club but still should compete for a playoff spot.

 

Western Conference

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks

  • New Faces: Robin Lehner, Calvin De Haan, Olli Maatta, Andrew Shaw, Zack Smith
  • Vegas Point Totals: 90.5
  • Fantasy Spin: While the Blackhawks are still unlikely to be contenders this season, they’ve added some legitimate names to their roster that will make them better. For starters, the additions of NHL level defensemen like Calvin De Haan and Olli Maatta are huge. De Haan, in particular, is a defenseman that they could use in a shutdown role. If you’ve followed the Blackhawks over the last few seasons, you’ve noticed that they’ve been very loose defensively. In fact, last season, they finished dead last in xGA60 (expected goals against per 60) on 5v5 and it wasn’t particularly close. We’re not expecting them to be *this* bad defensively this season. They’ve also added Robin Lehner, who’s coming off a career best season (.930 SV%) in which he received Vezina votes (finished third). We’re not expecting Lehner to replicate that type of season, but couple that with Corey Crawford finally getting a clean bill of health and there are clear reasons for optimism here. Keep in mind that Lehner is replacing Cam Ward – that in it of itself is significant for this team.

Colorado Avalanche

  • New Faces: Joonas Donskoi, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Cale Makar
  • Vegas Point Totals: 97.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Tyson Barrie is now a Maple Leaf and Mikkko Rantanen wants Mitch Marner money, which means he’s still unsigned. Enter Andre Burakovsky and Cale Makar to name a few of their significant additions. Burakovsky has been skating alongside Nathan MacKinnon’s line during camp. IF Burakovsky is able to hold on to that role, that’ll be significant for his DFS value, particularly early on in the season as his price is unlikely to reflect his new role right away. Makar is Barrie’s replacement and we are buying into the hype immediately. Makar didn’t play in the regular season for the Avs last year, but he did play 10 playoff games. In those playoff games, he generated six points. Skills aside – he’s now the new quarterback of the Avs’ top power play unit. It’s a significant role for a player that will likely have a compelling price at the beginning of the season. UPDATE: Mikko Rantanen has agreed to a 6 year, 55.5 million contracts with the Avalanche. Andre Burakovsky projects to start the season with Nazem Kadri, which would net him a second line role. IF he holds on to that role, he’ll have more value here than he did in Washington.

Dallas Stars

  • New Faces: Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry
  • Vegas Point Totals: 97.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Stars get a clear upgrade on their power play with the addition of Joe Pavelski, who’s averaged 12 goals with the man advantage over the last six seasons. Pavelski is going to skate with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin across all situations making it a top-ranked line stack that will be matchup proof. Pavelski’s production will eventually falter, but it won’t be this year with that role. Corey Perry is coming off an injury riddled season and is 34 years old. We’re not sure how much Perry has left in the tank, but previous to last season, he was a very productive NHLer, averaging 60.2 points over the previous five seasons and 57.7 points for his career. He’s *probably* not going to be that productive moving forward, but in the right situation, he could provide some sneaky DFS value. We’re unsure about his role to open up the season as he broke his foot a few weeks ago. The Stars power play will be ELITE so pay close attention to whether or not Miro Heiskanen can take any of the role away from John Klingberg. Both defensemen will be high upside plays when on that unit.

Minnesota Wild

  • New Faces: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Donato
  • Vegas Point Totals: 85.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Wild had a window of getting into the playoffs and potentially making some noise, but that window is gone. They traded Mikkael Granlund to the Nashville Predators and Charlie Coyle to the Boston Bruins last season. They added a bit more potential goal scoring with the acquisition of former Bruin Ryan Donato, who’s currently projected to skate alongside Mikko Koivu and Ryan Hartman. All things considered, that’s a pretty good third line and Donato (23 years old – 15 goals in 68 career games at the NHL level) has the upside of being a 20 goal scorer sooner rather than later. Their top six are solid and their top four defensemen (Suter-Dumba, Brodin-Spurgeon) are good. They’ll be relevant in DFS in the right matchups, which was mostly the case last season.

Nashville Predators

  • New Faces: Matt Duchene, Dante Fabbro
  • Vegas Point Totals: 98.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Predators traded P.K. Subban to the New Jersey Devils in the offseason, which clears the way for prospect Dante Fabbro to play a significant role. It’s unlikely that Fabbro steps into the lineup and averages ~22-23 minutes a night right away, but his offensive upside (33 points in 38 games in his last year at the NCAA level) could translate into a power play role. Fabbro played four games with the Predators last season, so he’s had a taste of the NHL level. Coaches and management have spoken highly about him. He could be a bargain play early in the season IF the role is somewhat significant, which at the moment it looks like it will be (paired with Ekholm, second PP). As for the addition of Duchene, it looks like he’ll be skating with Granlund and Forsberg to begin the season. That’s clearly significant for a variety of reasons and if they stick together, they’ll likely end up being the best line to target from this team in DFS. The Predators will lean heavily on Josi, Ellis and Ekholm for minutes so we are interested in seeing their opening night prices.

St. Louis Blues

  • New Faces: Justin Faulk
  • Vegas Point Totals: 96.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The defending Stanley Cup champions had a very quiet offseason. They just signed Justin Faulk to a pretty egregious contract and lost Patrick Maroon in the offseason. That could be addition by subtraction. They’ll remain a tough team to pick on, particularly on home ice. The top line (Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko) is the one to be mostly in play throughout the season. The second line, led by Ryan O’Reilly, is going to be relevant in the right matchups as well.

Winnipeg Jets

  • New Faces: Neal Pionk, Nathan Beaulieu
  • Vegas Point Totals: 95.5
  • Fantasy Spin: One of the biggest storylines in the offseason is the Jets’ losses on the defensive end. They traded away Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers got a big payday and Ben Chiarot is gone as well. Additionally, there are questions surrounding Dustin Byfuglien’s future as he’s currently on a leave of absence and is contemplating retirement. IF Byfuglien does elect to retire, that means the Jets will have to replace more than half (!) of their defense, which is by far the largest turnover in that department in the entire league. At this point, it’s looking more and more likely that the Jets have gone from a team that you typically wouldn’t like to pick on in DFS to a team that you’re picking on constantly. Combine that with a talented top six and we could be looking at a team to game stack. Yahtzee!

 

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks

  • New Faces: Michael Del Zotto, Brendan Guhle
  • Vegas Point Totals: 80.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Here’s the good news for the Ducks: things can only get better, right? Last season, the Ducks finished bottom 5 in CA60 and xGA60 on 5v5. They were easily one of the worst defensive clubs in hockey, but John Gibson was able to hold down the fort a bit (.923 SV%). This season, they have some turnover on defense, which isn’t good news, but ultimately they will need better results from their top guys (Lindholm, Manson and Fowler). It’s possible that Manson and Fowler rebound, but in general, this looks like a team that we’ll continue to pick on in DFS. Another big storyline here is Ryan Getzlaf turning 34 and coming off a down season (48 points in 67 games). Ondrej Kase, likely their most important forward, is skating with Getzlaf, but it’s the second line (Rakell-Steel-Silfverberg) that looks the most promising for DFS. Steel is a name to keep an eye on – he had a 41 point pace in 22 games with the Ducks last season and is just 21 years old.

Arizona Coyotes

  • New Faces: Phil Kessel, Barrett Hayton
  • Vegas Point Totals: 88.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Coyotes made a big splash in the offseason, trading for Phil Kessel. Kessel has been an elite scorer in both real life and in DFS, but there are some clear red flags here. For starters, he’s about to turn 32. Also, he no longer has access to two of the best centers (Crosby and Malkin) in the entire league. His scoring will slow down in Arizona, but they should and will deploy him in the power play often. After all, the Coyotes have struggled mightily in the man advantage, and Kessel should be one if not their biggest contributor in that department. It’s a long-winded way of saying – this is without a doubt a good acquisition for this team, but it doesn’t check all the boxes. A big storyline last season was how the Coyotes fought for a playoff spot and became difficult to play against. That last point still holds true, and we’re no longer rushing out to target against them as we did in previous seasons.

Calgary Flames

  • New Faces: Milan Lucic, Cam Talbot
  • Vegas Point Totals: 98.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Flames’ top six (Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm; Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik) remained untouched in the offseason. The biggest move that this team made was trading away James Neal for Milan Lucic and acquiring Cam Talbot, a decent goaltender. Talbot is coming off a horrific season in which saw him post a .892 SV%. Rittich was okay at best (.911 SV%) last season. It seems like the biggest issues with the Flames this season are goaltending and lack of depth, which ironically were the biggest issues they had last season as well.

Edmonton Oilers

  • New Faces: James Neal, Mike Smith
  • Vegas Point Totals: 85.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Edmonton Oilers should continue to trade chances and the main thing to monitor will be the rotation of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent Hopkins, as well as which winger gets buoyed by top-line minutes for a few games at a time. The Oilers should still be a team you target for opposing stacks, and debating whether to fall for value traps like Tomas Jorco, James Neal, Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson, etc, will be a constant battle for cash games and tournaments, or if you just roll with McNaked.

LA Kings

  • New Faces: Ben Hutton, Tobias Bjornfot
  • Vegas Point Totals: 75.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Kings were ranked 20th in CF% (5v5) last season. They’ve gone from a team you never picked on to a team you can pick on regularly. We believe this is going to be the case moving forward. The Kings’ core players are clearly aging, and their prized acquisition in the offseason was… Ben Hutton? It’s going to be a long season for the Kings, and our interest level for DFS will likely be minimal. It remains to be seen if Bjornfot will actually stick with Drew Doughty, who gushed about him, and the Kings or will be given more time to develop.

SJ Sharks

  • New Faces: Dylan Gambrell
  • Vegas Point Totals: 95.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Sharks lost Joe Pavelski in the offseason but are still looking like a solid bet to make the playoffs given their win-now window and being a part of a bad division. The Sharks’ core is clearly aging as well. While losing Pavelski means they can turn to a youngster, they’re also losing a lot of production. Pavelski generated at least 64 points in 6 straight seasons and was a pivotal power play piece. His absence will be felt. The top two lines along with Burns/Karlsson will be in play in DFS on a regular basis.

Vancouver Canucks

  • New Faces: Michael Ferland, Tanner Pearson, JT Miller, Tyler Myers, Quinn Hughes
  • Vegas Point Totals: 86.5
  • Fantasy Spin: Here’s the good news for the Canucks; their top six is finally legit. With the Sedin twins riding into the sunset together, here’s the Canucks’ top six: Ferland-Petersson-Boeser, Pearson-Horvat-J.T. Miller. Pearson and Ferland are decent NHLers at best and in a great season can provide 40 points. They’re not great DFS pieces but are fine as complements to complete a stack. Additionally, the Canucks have added Tyler Myers and highly touted rookie Quinn Hughes on the blue line. Hughes is so talented offensively that a PP1 role is well within reach at some point this season. Unfortunately, the Canucks’ depth is really ugly and that’s what will likely doom this team in real life. They’re still a below-average team but they’re more fun now.

Las Vegas Golden Knights

  • New Faces: Cody Glass, Dylan Coghlan, Jimmy Schuldt
  • Vegas Point Totals: 99.5
  • Fantasy Spin: The Golden Knights have an embarrassment of riches. They added Paul Stastny in the offseason last year, Max Pacioretty and added Mark Stone, a top 15 player in the NHL, in the trade deadline. Their top six (Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith; Pacioretty-Stastny-Stone) is comprised of two top lines, which is rather absurd. On top of that, they have a formidable third line, one that will feature Pirri-Eakin-Tuch once the latter two are healthy. In the meantime, they’ll likely roll out Pirri-Glass (a promising rookie)-Zykov. Oh and by the way, they also have Shea Theodore on the blue line, a defenseman that many are picking for a breakout season at age 24. Theodore is looking at a PP1 role for the entire season and his puck skills are remarkable. Top that off with great goaltending (Marc-Andre Fleury) and you can start to see why many, us included, are high on the Golden Knights this season. They’re must-watch TV and will be recommended in DFS on a nightly basis.

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