Welcome to the 2019 Players Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
Masters Sweat Promotion
We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:
- Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
- Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
- Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
- We’ll also be offering a guaranteed sweat spot to the winner of our subscriber free roll in SLACK
Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!
News and Notes
The 2019 Players Championship will be played again at TPC Sawgrass but with the date moved up from May to Mid March. Last year TPC Sawgrass played as a Par 72 measuring just under 7200 yards long and was 39th in par adjusted distance. With fairways that ranked middle of the road in width and an overall average scoring environment, The Players Championship yielded plenty of fantasy scoring. The course relinquished a Top 5 eagle rate with plenty of scoring available on the Par 5s. This year the event is being held two months earlier and with colder weather and softer conditions, some are speculating that the course will play longer but it is hard to take that too seriously at least altering fit dramatically given the Honda Classic is longer (par adjusted) and doesn’t historically favored heavy off the tee play. If anything, it is mostly noise to cut through as it relates to course fit and strokes gained approach will again reign supreme.
There are some injuries to weigh this week. Justin Thomas (wrist: tape), Tiger Woods (neck: pre-event WD), and Jason Day (back: mid-event WD) are notable names that have been hampered by injuries. With PGATOUR injury reporting the nut low its a bit of a guessing game to figure out how to balance potentially injury risk with ownership benefits in tournaments. With plenty of great options and none a screaming value, it seems valid to avoid these players in cash games.
There will be a lot of talk this week about “soft pricing” but the reality is that the optimal teams still have at best 17-20 percent odds to get 6/6 through to the weekend leveraging the DataGolf made cut probabilities. To maximize 6/6 this week you can take a super balanced approach bypassing many of the top names in the field.
As a reminder, DataGolf has revamped the projection model for 2019 and there are a few key changes:
- More alignment with the finishing probability
- Moving towards a decay model for Current Form and Long-Term form to weigh rounds
- Incorporation of specific strokes gained metrics based on the predictive power of each metric
Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast – Players Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview
Course Fit and Course History
From a descriptive perspective, the historic event data from DataGolf shows that the event has historically over-indexed in strokes approach relative to the tour average, with slightly less emphasis on putting. While a strong (or hot) putter will always be required to win the course fit definitely favors ball strikers over strong putters.
Course history at The Players is a bit all over the map. Sergio Garcia (10 straight made cuts and 3 top 10s) and Matt Kuchar (made 9 of 10 cuts with a win) have the most consistent course history while Justin Thomas (11-MC-3-24) and Francesco Molinari (4 Top 10s and 4 Missed Cuts). This jives with a strong field and a course that features plenty of trouble including the infamous 17th hole island green.