Welcome to the 2019 RBC Heritage Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
Masters Sweat Promotion
Our Masters Sweat promotion ended up down $6 on the week with low exposure to Brooks and Tiger being the nail in the coffin around very solid value plays. Stay tuned for more details on our next promo!
News and Notes
The RBC Heritage is played at Harbour Town Golf Links, a Par 71 that plays just a touch longer than 7100 yards and during the 2018 season featured the narrowest fairways on tour and was just the 38th longest in par adjusted distance. The course plays tough, generally speaking, with a cut line hovering around even par or worse and the winning score ranging within a couple strokes of 10-under par. The scoring conditions look particularly brutal this week with the nearest weather tower showing gusts up to 20 MPH on Thursday and hitting 40 MPH on Friday which could potentially put the play at risk. It is always dangerous to speculate on weather severe enough to cause a delay but if a partial delay does happen (versus a full Friday cancellation) the Friday PM tee time group could be pushed into a more favorable Saturday scoring environment. It is not clear enough for me to recommend full stacking across all your teams but building some “wave stacked” lineups I think makes sense given that worst case the Friday PM group will get even scoring conditions and in the best case they catch a huge break.
Going for the Green RBC Heritage Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview
RBC Heritage Course Fit
From a descriptive perspective, the DataGolf historic event data shows that this event has under-indexed in strokes gained off the tee and over-indexed in strokes gained approach compared to a traditional tour stop. This aligns with some predictive analysis that I did on historic strokes gained data as a leading indicator which shows correlations of 0.13 (OTT), 0.27 (APP), 0.01 (ARG), and 0.17 (SGP) with finishing position at the RBC Heritage. This makes sense considering the short length, narrow fairways, and small greens, and it does seem like one of the more outlier courses on tour as far as fit.
RBC Heritage Course History
I have made it this far without mentioning Luke Donald, who is possibly more infamous for his history at this course (MC-2-2-15-2-3-37-2-3-2) than he is for being the former OWGR #1 and one of the best iron players in the world. He pops in DataGolf’s historic event data and checks the box for course fit (at least historically) but even with a healthy bump in projection still doesn’t become a play given his form. Donald was 12% owned last year and projects lower than that this year at a $500 discount – where he lands will be an interesting sign of how far the PGA DFS community has come.
Some other great course histories in the field this week include Jordan Spieth (11-12-9), Matt Kuchar (10/10 made cuts with 5 Top 15s), Jim Furyk (2 wins), Jason Day (not in the field), Russell Knox, Webb Simpson, and Kevin Kisner. The presence of these players in course history aligns with the “above average off the tee but exceptional on approach or with the putter” course fit this week and I’ll be making adjustments to our default projections based on a combination of fit/history more this week than a typical week of PGA DFS.