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2019 Sanderson Farms DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
2019 Sanderson Farms DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 Sanderson Farms DraftKings Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip,

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

Pinned Note:

Perhaps the most relevant news is that the PGATOUR has a new cut line rule for the 2019-20 season with the cut to T65 and ties after the conclusion of play. For players that make the cut, there will be no more MDF (Made Cut Did Not Finish) which means everybody who makes the cut will be guaranteed two rounds over the weekend. From a fantasy perspective, it isn’t really going to matter that much in tournaments. You will still need the winner and 6/6 through the cut most weeks and particularly in large field GPPs you will still need the majority of your golfers inside of the Top 20. The rule change could benefit balanced rosters * slightly * in a small field or cash format. Regardless, our projections have cut probabilities factored in so that work has been done for you.

The Sanderson Farms event is played at the CC of Jackson which is a relatively nondescript course that plays as a Par 72 just over 7400 yards long and is middle of the road in both par adjusted distance and fairway width. Despite hosting weak fields the event still has played as one of the easiest on tour and a winning score approaching 20-under par is to be expected. Easy courses can often turn into putting contests and several of the best T2G performances through two rounds didn’t even result in a made cut last week at The Greenbrier (Kokrak, Malnati, Potter, Every, Weekley, Gomez). Scottie Scheffler, Adam Long, Sebastian Munoz, Tom Hoge, Joaquin Niemann and Matt Jones were among the best ball strikers last week that are in this week’s field.

Course Fit and Course History

The chart below shows the strokes gained composition at this event compared to tour averages from DataGolf who powers our fantasy projections.

This event has historically played as a relatively neutral event with putting driving more of a deviation in scoring and approaching a little less. This also aligns with the fact that courses and events with lower winning scores reward putting to a greater degree, and courses that are more challenging reward ball striking. Given the week-to-week volatility that feeds into putting it anecdotally feels like there is more randomness to the leaderboards and contrarian plays could be rewarded.

Since this is a swing season event course history matters even less – the majority of golfers have played this event only a handful of time and the ones who have played it multiple times are generally worse players. William McGirt (1.55), Jason Kokrak (1.22), Nick Taylor (1.21), Roberto Castro (1.09) and Lucas Glover (1.09) have the strongest course history index in DataGolf’s work. There is nothing about course fit that I can really glean from the stronger course history players making it something I won’t be considering when building my lineups.

Recent Form

Here are the players leading into this event with the strongest recent form:

  • Joaquin Niemann CUT-13-30-31-1 (Played Last Week)
  • Brandt Snedeker 27-39-6-5-24 (Last Event 8/25)
  • Sungjae Im 6-38-11-19-19 (Plays Every Week)
  • Corey Conners 27-22-21-7-26 (Last Event 8/25)
  • Byeong Hun An 32-3-38-28-47 (Played Last Week)

While form matters, I’m less inclined to lean on current form that is driven by events played nearly a month ago as a major factor. Tom Hoge, Scott Harrington, and Brian Harman are 3 other names that played last week who have strong form relatively to their personal baselines leading into this week’s event.

 

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