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2019 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
2019 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
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 Welcome to the 2019 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

Masters Sweat Promotion

We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:

  1. Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
  2. Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
  3. Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!

News and Notes

The Valero Texas Open is played at TPC San Antonio which is a Par 72 that plays 7435 yards long. Last year, the course was 18th in par adjusted distanced and also had the 18th narrowest fairways on tour, while playing the 13th toughest from a DraftKings / fantasy format. In general with the tough historic conditions, potential weather, and weak field, the “finish bonuses” will prove critical for cash games and tournaments. The weather is often a factor in Texas and the closest weather station to the event is at the airport. The current forecast calls for moderate winds on Thursday and Friday with increasingly worse conditions on the weekend. Right now there might be a very small bias towards starting Thursday PM / Friday AM but it bears monitoring particularly for Showdown contests.

Going for the Green Valero Texas Open Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview

Valero Texas Open Course Fit

Trying to identify Valero Texas Open course fit using DataGolf’s historic event data shows that the course has a relatively neutral profile regarding what drives variation in scores. Last year’s version of the event overindexed in Strokes Gained Around the Green compared to the event’s historical averages and also compared to the tour’s historic averages. The challenge with this is that both putting and around the green play can be more volatile on a week to week basis. I am unlikely to make any changes to the projections this week on the basis of “course fit.”

Valero Texas Open Course History

The SmartGolfBets site has tournament sheets for traditional course history for this specific field and there are only a few notable performances:

  • Matt Kuchar has 4 top 25 finishes and no missed cuts over his last 7 starts
  • Jordan Spieth has a 2nd and 10th placed finish
  • Jim Furyk has made 4 cuts including a 6th and 3rd place finish back in 2013-14
  • Charley Hoffman (64-40-1-11-11-3-13-2-6), Ryan Palmer (MC-6-4-6-MC-56-15-32-MC) and Jimmy Walker (4-13-MC-1-16-31-MC-MC-7) come in with poor form relative to their careers but have good course history

Additionally, some names not in the field like Brandt Snedeker, Martin Laird, Pat Perez, Kevin Chappell and Zach Johnson pop in DataGolf’s historic event data.

The overview of names with a strong track record here seems to align with the relatively neutral course fit data and it should be a week where overall golfer skill matters more than individual elements.

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