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2019 Valspar Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
2019 Valspar Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 Valspar Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

Masters Sweat Promotion

We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:

  1. Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
  2. Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
  3. Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!

News and Notes

The 2019 Valspar Championship will be played at Innisbrook Resort more fondly known as Copperhead. The course is a Par 71 that stretched 7340 yards and includes five Par 3s. In 2018 the Valspar Championship played as the 6th toughest course on tour relative to par and featured the 2nd narrowest fairways to go along with a ranking of 16th in par adjusted distance.

This in combination with a weak field will make fantasy scoring (birdies and eagles) more challenging to come by and place an added emphasis on finish points. Securing the top-ranked golfers will be critical in all formats but more important than getting 6/6 through in cash games or small field formats if it allows you to chase win equity.

As a reminder, DataGolf has revamped the projection model for 2019 and there are a few key changes:

  • More alignment with the finishing probability
  • Moving towards a decay model for Current Form and Long-Term form to weigh rounds
  • Incorporation of specific strokes gained metrics based on the predictive power of each metric

We’ve also revamped our betting tools and optimizer for the 2019 season and our optimizer now supports Showdown.

Going for the Green Fantasy Golf Podcast – Valspar Championship Fantasy Golf Picks and Preview

Course Fit and Course History

From a descriptive perspective, the historic event data from DataGolf shows that the event has historically over-indexed in strokes gained-putting relative to the tour average, while last year with challenging wind conditions it tilted more towards strokes gained around the green. The greens at Copperhead are challenging to hit and with wind expected it is reasonable to expect short game to play a role this week. The current wind conditions show a pretty distinct benefit to playing Thursday morning, particularly for Showdown formats where it could present a material edge. A few of the higher projected players in the field that could potentially see worse wind conditions for one of the four rounds include Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, Lucas Glover and Bubba Watson.

Course history at this event is a bit mixed, as in the field only Sergio Garcia (4-6-16-15-41), Patrick Reed (Four Top 10s) and Jim Furyk (Nine made cuts and a win) have both consistent history and large sample size. Looking at the Historic Event Data from DataGolf can add a bit more to the story as Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, and Matt Kuchar show that medium length but strong long iron players have faired well, while Steve Stricker rides just behind Jim Furyk on the old man golf index.

 

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