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2019 WGC Match Play Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Jason E. Miczek)
2019 WGC Match Play Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip
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Welcome to the 2019 WGC Match Play Fantasy Golf Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | Course History | PGA Betting 

Masters Sweat Promotion

We’re excited to announce our first PGA DFS SWEAT campaign of the season. During the NFL season we put more than $25,000 on the line on behalf of our subscribers as CEO Jeremy Stein (won of the only people to win two separate $1,000,000 DFS prizes) entered tournaments and each week a handful of subscribers were selected to split 50% of his equity. This campaign is back for The Masters and we’ll be Mass Multi Entering a GPP and bringing some subscribers along for the ride. There are a few ways you can get involved:

  1. Have an active PGA or ELITE subscription. All subscribers will be automatically entered. Not a subscriber? Sign up with the promo SWEAT and save 10%.
  2. Rate and review our podcast on iTunes. In the review leave your twitter handle or DailyRoto username. We’ll enter these into the drawing.
  3. Tweet your favorite value play this week @DailyRoto and use the hashtag #drsweat. We’ll enter these into the drawing.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more ways to win!

News and Notes

The 2019 WGC Match Play will be held again this year at Austin Country Club which has held the event since the 2016 season. Previous winners of the event at this venue include Jason Day over Louis Oosthuizen (2016), Dustin Johnson over Jon Rahm (2017), and Bubba Watson over Kevin Kisner (2018). This year will also mark the second time that DraftKings has run a fantasy format for the event. The scoring is laid out below and features a combination of streaks, per hole and per match scoring.

Per Hole Scoring
Holes Won +3 Pts
Holes Halved +0.75 Pts
Holes Lost -0.75 Pts
Holes Not Played +1.6 Pts
Matches Won +5 Pts
Matches Halved +2 Pts

 

Streaks and Bonuses
Streak of 3 Consecutive Holes Won in Match {Max 1 Per Round} +5 Pts
No Holes Lost in Match Bonus +7.5 Pts

The crux of the event though is that it is a match play contest, with sixteen individual “pods” of four golfers that will compete in a round robin style format. The winner of each of those pods will advance and play in a bracket-style contest culminating in a championship and consolation round. Playing in more matches and advancing through to the finals is obviously advantageous for DK scoring. The other unique element, of course, is that it is not a stroke play event and you are playing heads up versus another player. This means the random Spieth triple will cost him less than it would at an additional event, and also that there is a little dynamic strategy as the match proceeds.

There will be a lot of content fodder this week about players who excel in match play formats but the truth is most of the analysis is done without an appropriate lense of a) sample size, b) whether or not its predictive and c) whether or not a player would have been a huge favorite in those matches anyways like Tiger Woods in his prime.

Still, it is fun to review the data which we can get complimentary from Adam Sarson across all of the different match play formats.

Adam Sarson’s Match Play Records

Golfer WGC (2016-2018) WGC (1999-2015) Presidents Cup Ryder Cup Other Total Winning Percentage
Tony Finau 2 – 1 N/A N/A 1 – 0 N/A 3 – 1 75%
Tiger Woods N/A 33 – 10 6 – 2 4 – 2 – 2 7 – 3 50 – 17 – 2 72%
Alex Noren 8 – 3 1 – 2 N/A 1 – 0 7 – 2 17 – 7 70%
Jason Day 8 – 3 14 – 6 2 – 2 N/A N/A 24 – 11 68%
Xander Schauffele 2 – 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 – 1 66%
Patrick Cantlay 2 – 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 – 1 66%
Rafa Cabrera Bello 8 – 4 – 1 1 – 2 N/A 1 – 0 5 – 1 15 – 7 – 1 65%
Ian Poulter 4 – 1 24 – 13 N/A 5 – 0 – 1 8 – 3 – 4 41 – 17 – 5 65%
Jon Rahm 6 – 3 – 1 N/A N/A 1 – 0 N/A 7 – 3 – 1 63%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 6 – 2 0 – 1 N/A N/A 8 – 3 – 2 14 – 6 – 2 63%
Gary Woodland 2 – 1 – 1 6 – 3 N/A N/A N/A 8 – 4 – 1 61%
Tyrrell Hatton 4 – 3 N/A N/A 0 – 1 4 – 1 8 – 5 61%
Brooks Koepka 6 – 3 2 – 1 0 – 1 1 – 0 – 1 N/A 9 – 5 – 1 60%
Rory McIlroy 5 – 5 – 2 18 – 6 N/A 2 – 2 – 1 4 – 3 29 – 16 – 3 60%
Cameron Smith 3 – 1 – 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3 – 1 – 1 60%
Louis Oosthuizen 10 – 4 9 – 6 1 – 0 – 2 N/A 0 – 2 20 – 12 – 2 58%
Kyle Stanley 3 – 2 1 – 1 N/A N/A N/A 4 – 3 57%
Kevin Kisner 8 – 4 – 1 N/A 0 – 0 – 1 N/A N/A 8 – 4 – 2 57%
Patrick Reed 6 – 4 – 1 3 – 2 0 – 1 – 1 3 – 0 2 – 2 14 – 9 – 2 56%
Bubba Watson 9 – 2 – 3 11 – 5 0 – 1 – 1 0 – 4 N/A 20 – 12 – 4 55%
Matt Kuchar 5 – 3 – 3 18 – 6 0 – 4 1 – 3 N/A 24 – 16 – 3 55%
Dustin Johnson 10 – 5 4 – 7 1 – 1 – 1 3 – 1 N/A 18 – 14 – 1 54%
Paul Casey 5 – 4 – 1 20 – 10 N/A 1 – 1 – 2 9 – 10 – 1 35 – 25 – 4 54%
Henrik Stenson N/A 14 – 9 N/A 3 – 2 10 – 7 – 5 27 – 18 – 5 54%
Tommy Fleetwood 3 – 3 3 – 2 N/A 0 – 1 2 – 1 8 – 7 53%
Phil Mickelson 8 – 3 16 – 11 4 – 5 – 3 5 – 6 – 1 N/A 33 – 25 – 4 53%
Sergio Garcia 6 – 3 – 1 16 – 15 N/A 4 – 4 – 1 9 – 5 – 2 35 – 27 – 4 53%
Charles Howell III 5 – 3 5 – 8 2 – 0 N/A N/A 12 – 11 52%
Jim Furyk 1 – 1 – 1 18 – 17 5 – 2 4 – 4 – 1 0 – 1 28 – 25 – 2 51%
Lee Westwood 2 – 3 14 – 16 N/A 3 – 7 16 – 7 – 1 35 – 33 – 1 51%
Hideki Matsuyama 3 – 5 – 1 4 – 2 2 – 1 N/A N/A 9 – 8 – 1 50%
Billy Horschel 1 – 2 3 – 2 N/A N/A N/A 4 – 4 50%
Justin Rose 1 – 1 – 1 9 – 10 N/A 2 – 2 – 1 4 – 3 16 – 16 – 2 47%
Jordan Spieth 6 – 3 – 1 5 – 2 0 – 3 0 – 3 N/A 11 – 11 – 1 47%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 4 – 5 N/A N/A 0 – 1 4 – 2 – 1 8 – 8 – 1 47%
Justin Thomas 6 – 7 N/A 0 – 1 1 – 0 N/A 7 – 8 46%
Branden Grace 4 – 4 – 1 2 – 4 1 – 1 – 1 N/A 4 – 2 – 1 11 – 11 – 3 44%
Francesco Molinari 2 – 3 2 – 7 N/A 1 – 1 – 1 9 – 5 – 1 14 – 16 – 2 43%
Brandt Snedeker 4 – 2 – 1 3 – 6 0 – 1 1 – 1 2 – 2 10 – 12 – 1 43%
Tom Lewis N/A N/A N/A N/A 3 – 4 3 – 4 42%
Webb Simpson 1 – 4 – 1 7 – 4 0 – 1 – 1 1 – 1 – 1 N/A 9 – 10 – 3 40%
J.B. Holmes 1 – 3 – 2 5 – 4 0 – 1 1 – 1 N/A 7 – 9 – 2 38%
Siwoo Kim 3 – 2 – 2 N/A 0 – 1 N/A N/A 3 – 3 – 2 37%
Marc Leishman 1 – 6 – 2 3 – 2 2 – 0 – 1 N/A N/A 6 – 8 – 3 35%
Chez Reavie 1 – 1 – 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 – 1 – 1 33%
Kevin Na 4 – 4 – 2 1 – 4 N/A N/A N/A 5 – 8 – 2 33%
Russell Knox 2 – 3 – 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 – 3 – 1 33%
Thorbjorn Olesen 1 – 2 1 – 2 N/A 1 – 0 1 – 5 4 – 9 30%
Shane Lowry 0 – 4 – 2 3 – 3 N/A N/A 2 – 5 5 – 12 – 2 26%
Haotong Li 0 – 3 N/A N/A N/A 1 – 0 1 – 3 25%
Lucas Bjerregaard N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 – 3 1 – 3 25%
Satoshi Kodaira 0 – 4 N/A N/A N/A 1 – 0 1 – 4 20%
Emiliano Grillo 1 – 4 – 1 N/A 0 – 1 N/A N/A 1 – 5 – 1 14%
Byeong Hun An 1 – 4 – 2 N/A N/A N/A 0 – 2 1 – 6 – 2 11%
Keegan Bradley 0 – 1 – 2 1 – 6 0 – 1 0 – 2 N/A 1 – 10 – 2 7%
Bryson DeChambeau N/A N/A N/A 0 – 1 N/A 0 – 1 0%
Matt Wallace N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 – 1 0 – 1 0%
Luke List 0 – 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 – 3 0%
Eddie Pepperell N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Justin Harding N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Andrew Putnam N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Keith Mitchell N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Abraham Ancer N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aaron Wise N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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