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2020 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

2020 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
DREWBY
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Welcome to the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

The 2020 Farmers Insurance Open brings the strongest field we have seen yet this year as the PGATOUR rolls on to Torrey Pines in San Diego. The Farmers Insurance Open will have rounds played on two different course – Torrey Pines North and South. Every golfer will play at least one round on each course, and the South course will feature the final two rounds. Torrey Pines North is one of the easier courses on tour, playing just 7258 yards and as a Par 72 and in Showdown formats is where you will want to target golfers. The South Course plays notably harder as a Par 72 at nearly 7700 yards long making it the longest course on tour last year even when adjusting for par. The length of the course favors the bombers and while above-average distance and accuracy is always beneficial, we’ve also seen some more pure bombers deliver outlier results at Torrey Pines. Perhaps nobody highlights this better than JB Holmes (MC-4-33-6-2-23-MC-MC-63-27) who has shown the outlier upside on weeks where things clicked while also clearly demonstrating the volatility associated with a course as difficult as Torrey Pines. At the top end of the field, virtually everybody has missed a cut here with Tony Finau (13-6-4-18-24) one of the exceptions.

 

Torrey Pines Course Fit

New to the projections this year is the inclusion of course fit from DataGolf for every player in the field. The view for the South Course at Torrey Pines is shown above and highlights the emphasis on driving distance this week, while also featuring the importance of approach play. Driving accuracy matters less here than an average PGATOUR course. Of course, to contend in such a strong field an all-around great week is going to be necessary but particularly for outlier upside on value plays it seems like the course is more of a bomber’s course than anything else. In terms of similarity scores, Torrey Pines rates very similar to Augusta (similarity score of 90.2) and Quail Hollow (similarity score of 89.9).

Some of the strongest positive course fit adjustments include Ryan Brehm, Cameron Champ and Trey Mullinax for value plays, and Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy for name brand golfers. Some of the strongest negative adjustments include Steve Stricker, Rory Sabbatini, and Kyle Stanley. Perhaps the biggest enigma in the week is Brandt Snedeker who gets a large bump on his course history (+0.14) but action profiles as a negative player (-0.09) related to course fit. This could be simply attributable to variance or the fact that Snedeker is said to be a strong POA putter.

PGA DFS is as much a balance of projection and ownership as it is finding the right plays. These concepts were covered in our PGA DFS Strategy Guide which should be referenced throughout the season as you look to hone in your strategy.

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