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2020 Sentry TOC Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

(AP Photo/Matt York)
2020 Sentry TOC Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
DREWBY
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Welcome to the 2020 Sentry TOC Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip

Access: Finish Probabilities | Projections and Optimizer | Head to Head Research Tool | PGA Betting 

News and Notes

The 2020 Sentry TOC will be played again at the Plantation Course at Kapalua which is a Par 73 that stretches to 7518 yards but ultimately plays shorter due to ample elevation changes and the fact that the resort course layout enables the tour players to bomb driver off of nearly every tee.

Which the PGA season relaunches in 2020 with the TOC, from a DFS perspective the event is a bit MEH as it is a no-cut event with just a 34-player field from the previous year’s winners and has already seen a few of the bigger name players sit out. There are a couple elements that this brings into play for DFS depending on your contest selection, as there will be a higher degree of lineup overlap than we see other weeks during the year.

In large field MME, avoiding duplicates will be important. Last year’s winner Ponta01 navigated this well, landing on a unique winner and cashing $50,000 with a lineup that had just $49,700 in salary used and 145% total ownership. This approach to differentiation allowed him to bypass several large trains of lineups that would have chopped the chop prize for less than $10,000 in most cases and shows the benefits of that strategy when the coin flips your way.

The easiest way to differentiate your roster this week is through a combination of leaving salary on the table ($49800 or lower) and setting a cap on the total projected ownership of your roster. Other potential ways to avoid it would be to identify popular combos (Like Rahm-Lanto and JT-Lanto) and create groups to restrict having that combination in your lineups. Ultimately with such a small field the path to DFS profit is likely less through golfer selection and more through contest selection and strategy. In smaller field contests you won’t need to worry quite as much about duplicates and can focus more on a contrarian blend of golfers but leverage the full salary cap.

New to the projections this year is the inclusion of course fit from DataGolf for every player in the field. The Plantation Course at Kapalua tends to favor driving distance more than a traditional course, and does not reward driving accuracy. That is not to say accuracy is bad (it isn’t) but rather that players who derive most of their edge from being accurate won’t be able to realize that edge this week. Our projections feature a toggle that can weigh course fit and history (100 = ON, 0 = OFF) so you can throttle that on and off to help understand the player specific nuances.

Strong Course Fit + History: Dustin Johnson, Martin Trainer, Patrick Reed, Cameron Champ, JB Holmes, Justin Thomas, Lanto Griffin, Keith Mitchell, Xander Schauffele

Weak Course Fit + History: Chez Reavie, Kevin Kisner, Adam Long, Paul Casey, Brendon Todd

That isn’t to say these players should be included (or excluded) outright on their fit profiles, but rather another element to layer into their individual baselines when forming our projections. As always, PGA DFS is as much a balance of projection and ownership as it is finding the right plays. These concepts were covered in our PGA DFS Strategy Guide which should be referenced throughout the season as you look to hone in your strategy.

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