Welcome to the 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Picks and Pro-Tip
News and Notes
The 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open is played at TPC Scottsdale, a stadium-style course that will play as a Par 71 at 7261 yards and set up some great PGA DFS sweats heading into the Super Bowl. Most well known for the Par 3 16th hole, the conclusion of the event makes for fun DFS sweats as you can connect birdie streaks between the Par 5 13th and Par 5 15th, or between the 15th-16th and the drivable Par 4 17th hole that plays 332 yards long. There will be ample fantasy scoring for all formats and the event is in the middle of the tour in par adjusted distance, fairway width, and overall scoring environment.
New to the projections this year is the inclusion of course fit from DataGolf for every player in the field. The view for TPC Scottsdale shows that driving accuracy has mattered considerably more at TPC Scottsdale than the average PGATOUR event while driving distance has also shown some importance. Approach play and around the green play has been shown to matter a little bit less.
Some of the strongest positive course fit adjustments include Brice Garnett, Colt Knost, Ryan Armour, Chez Reavie and Doc Redman. The strokes gained information from previous events also supports the trend of off-the-tee play driving more of an impact in scores. Last year 20 percent of the strokes gained deviation was driven by OTT play compared to a tour average of 15 percent with less strokes gained deviation driven by approach play. Of course, approach play is always important and still more important than OTT play in aggregate but good drivers of the ball could receive a slight boost this week compared to a traditional tour start.
From a course history perspective, the event does have some of the more predictive course histories and there are a few players who are receiving greater than a +0.10 stroke per round adjustment based on their previous performance at this event. Brendan Steele (+0.16), Scott Piercy (+0.14), Bubba Watson (+0.13), JB Holmes (+0.12), Kevin Na (+0.12), Hideki Matsuyama (+0.11) and Gary Woodland (+0.10) all have notably strong adjustments based on their performance at TPC Scottsdale. All of these players are generally very strong T2G and good drivers of the ball with the exception of Kevin Na who is known more for his accuracy.
PGA DFS is as much a balance of projection and ownership as it is finding the right plays. These concepts were covered in our PGA DFS Strategy Guide which should be referenced throughout the season as you look to hone in your strategy.