2/17 CBB DFS Picks: Just Kelan It
Welcome to the Tuesday’s edition of DCoop328’s 2/17 CBB DFS Picks. Today we will break down the top plays at each price range (based on Fanduel pricing). College Basketball’s first six-figure tournament is tonight, so there is no reason not to play.
Kelan Martin (Butler, Forward) Kelan began the season coming off the bench as a 6th man for the Bulldogs. He showed great point per minute statistics and played extremely well, finally earning a starting position with guaranteed minutes. Since joining the starting lineup, Kelan has turned his play up to another level. He has led the team in usage, peaking with a team high 20 shot attempts last game. Martin makes a great cash game play due to his 151st rebounding rate and makes a great GPP play due to his 26.7 usage rate (180th in the nation). Mix in an added tempo boost against Creighton (82nd fastest team in the country) and Kelan is basically a lock for a double-double tonight with 30-15 upside.
Maurice Watson Jr. (Creighton, Guard) Moe Watson is the main cog of the Creighton offense, controlling 28% of possessions. He’s likely to be guarded by Rosie Jones tonight who is a much larger, more physical point guard (6’4 230). Advantage, Watson – one of the quickest players in the country (5’10 165). Watson loves to drive to the hoop for layups and kick outs and should have no trouble doing so tonight against the bigger and slower Rosie Jones.
Other Top Plays: Sindarius Thornwell, Roosevelt Jones
Mid Range Plays ($6000-$8000)
Michael Young (Pittsburgh, Forward) Young came off the bench in his last game against North Carolina for motivational reasons but I believe he will be back in the starting lineup tonight. He gets to face the notorious Wake Forest defense. If you watched the NBA All Star Game Sunday night, that is pretty much how Wake plays. Run the ball up the court, jack up a three, and then let the other team take a quick open shot. With this increased pace and poor defense (Wake is worst in the ACC), Young, Pitt’s most used player (27.5 usage rate), will likely take 15-20 shots and easily hit value.
Kendrick Nunn (Illinois, Guard) This game is a battle of the two worst Big 10 teams. Both teams play fast and with little defense. Kendrick Nunn is one of two quality players on Illinois, along with Malcolm Hill. Nunn and Hill are very similar point per minute players and have similar advanced stats in almost all categories. The only difference has been in their minutes, but recently Nunn is seeing 34-38 minutes, comparable to Hill. Nunn and Hill should be priced very similarly, but instead have nearly a $2,000 difference. Take the savings on Nunn and lock in a very safe cash game guard.
Taurean Prince (Baylor, Forward) Prince, along with Iowa Forward Jarrod Uthoff, are my two favorite college basketball players. Prince gets a great matchup tonight facing Iowa State, a team that is one of the fastest in the country (72.4 adjusted tempo, 44th in country) and always seems to play in games with scores in the low to mid 80s. Prince is Baylor’s leading usage player and takes 27.9% of the teams shots while on the floor. An added bonus for Prince is that the Baylor scorekeeper is extremely lenient on handing out stats to the home team, especially regarding assists and blocks, both of which Prince routinely racks up.
Danuel House (Texas A&M, Forward) House has played extremely well in his last three halves of play, and it appears as though he’s getting back to his former standard of performance. Against LSU, he was the focal point of the offense, playing the point-forward role for much of the second half. House is a perennial $8000 player and is simply underpriced at $6700 on Fanduel. Until Danuel’s price jumps over the $7500 mark, he is going to be in my lineup every single slate.
Ryan Rosburg (Missouri, Forward)- Look up Rosburg’s photo on Google and you will see that he looks like he should be playing in your hometown YMCA. He also plays like the “YMCA hero”, as he is the guy that doesn’t do anything flashy but grabs all the rebounds and scores 20 points off of easy bank shots. Rosburg gets a matchup against South Carolina, a team that loves to push the tempo (58th in the nation). He should receive a few extra possessions and chances at rebounds as a result. Since joining the starting lineup a little over a week ago, Rosburg has put up nearly 30 fantasy points per game, easily paying off his 4x salary.
Mike Williams (Rutgers, Guard)- Stud Point Guard Corey Sanders has been suspended and will miss tonight’s game. Sanders had been one of the highest usage players in the country (1st in Big 10 in shot percentage and usage) during conference play and the entire team is going to have to take on large chunks of this usage. In conference play, Sanders has taken nearly 35% of the team’s total shots. That is insane. I think the primary recipient of this usage will be their second leading scorer, Mike Williams, who in his own right takes 26% of the teams shots while on the hardwood. This Illinois-Rutgers game is by far the most meaningless game in real life, but is definitely the most valuable for DFS because of Rutgers value.
Other Top Plays: Quindary Weatherspoon. Justin Edwards, Bryant Crawford, Vince Edwards
Value Plays ($4500-$6000)
Charles Mann (Georgia, Guard) Mann has recently been an extremely consistent fantasy performer, putting up 20 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven games. He has been consistently playing 35 minutes per game, which along with his usage rate (23.8), has led to tons of scoring. Mann also possesses a solid 12.2 rebound rate, which gives him two-category upside. Mann does not have a great matchup against Florida, but is underpriced for how he has been producing of late.
Maverick Morgan (Illinois, Forward)- After the injury to stud forward Mike Thorne, the Maverick has moved into the starting role. Maverick is actually a very solid offensive player, taking 21.1% of Illinois shots while in the game, and shooting at a 58% clip (15th in the Big 10). Morgan also gets to play in the best DFS game of the day against Rutgers, the fastest and worst defensive team in the Big 10.
Bishop Daniels (Rutgers, Guard) While Williams is going to be the biggest recipient of Corey Sanders’ usage, Bishop Daniels is likely going to be the biggest recipient of Sanders’ minutes. He is going to play all the minutes he can handle, likely between 36-38. The senior, Daniels, has been a quality player in past seasons, but Sanders has taken the majority of his minutes and usage. With Sanders out tonight, it is Daniels opportunity to shine. Against a lackluster defense, Daniels’ 20.0 assist rate should afford him the opportunity to go for a double-double against the lackluster Illinois defense.
Other Top Plays: Kellen Dunham, Andrew Chrabascz, James Robinson, Caleb Swanigan, Derek Ogbeide
Good luck today everybody and as always if you have any questions hit me up in the forums or on twitter @dcoop328dfs.
*statistics courtesy of kenpom.com