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Truth or Deron? Williams is your premier value on Monday

Truth or Deron? Williams is your premier value on Monday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – February 23rd, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

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Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftDay

Top Play:

Chris Paul (LAC) – Paul’s usage rate jumps modestly with Blake Griffin off the floor (25 percent compared to 23.2 percent) and his assist rates actually improve modestly as well (38 percent compared to 33.9 percent). The matchup with Memphis isn’t ideal (10th in defensive efficiency) but they do funnel more opportunities to the pick-and-roll ball handler than league average and over their last five games they’ve slipped to 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards. The Clippers are modest favorites in a game with the fourth highest total of the night (202) which should ensure playing time for Paul. Blowouts have been the only thing slowing him down of late, as he’s topped 45 DraftDay points in six of his last 10 games. The price point has adjusted slightly, but there is still some slight value in Paul’s current tag. He’s in contention for the top overall play honors but with some elite point guard values on the docket, he has a bit less positional value than James Harden.

Value Plays:

Deron Williams (BKN) – With Jarrett Jack and, to a lesser extent, Bojan Bogdanovic ruled out on Monday, the Nets are extremely thin in the backcourt. Williams played 40 minutes on Friday without Jack available and should approach that number again on Monday. For the season, Williams has averaged just under 0.90 Fantasy points per minute and his current price point is discounted due to an extended period off the bench. If we give a conservative 36 minute projection to Williams tonight, we’re looking at low thirties production in Fantasy points before even adjusting for opponent. Williams will face the Nuggets who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards and have slipped to 29th over their last five games. Williams’ value thresholds are hovering in the low thirties with his current price point and we think an average performance will get him there. Given the matchup, we’re expecting an above average performance, making him one of the best value plays available on Monday.

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