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3/1 NBA DFS: DJ Augustin is a core value

3/1 NBA DFS: DJ Augustin is a core value
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 1st, 2015

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – Curry is a better tournament option than cash game play but that has more to do with opportunity cost (three strong mid-tier value plays at the position) than it does Curry’s individual value. He should approach value thresholds in a road matchup against Boston that will hopefully stay just close enough (GS -8.5) to allow Curry the minutes he needs. This game unsurprisingly has the highest total of the evening (215) as it features two of the most up tempo teams in the league (Golden State is first in pace and Boston is fourth). With the tempo, reasonable spread and fair price point on Curry (an average game puts him narrowly missing value thresholds on most sites) he’s a good individual value and an elite tournament option.

Next in line:

Damian Lillard (POR) – Lillard, similar to Curry, is an unnecessary cash game option with three strong projected dollar per point values below. Also like Curry, Lillard is a good value in a vacuum and he’ll be under-owned in tournament action due to the high opportunity cost at the position. Lillard faces an up tempo Sacramento team that is eighth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards. Lillard has a strong all-around offensive game as he’s hovering around the 80th percentile in points per possession on isolation, pick-n-roll ball handler and spot up play types. Sacramento is around the 20-30th percentile in defending those particular play types and Ray McCallum is a poor defender (111 career defensive rating).

Value Plays:

DJ Augustin (OKC) – For the second time this season an injury in front of Augustin thrusts him into the starting point guard role. Russell Westbrook will be out today, which means Augustin steps into a dream matchup against a Lakers team that is dead last in defensive efficiency against opposing point guards and it’s really not even close. Jeremy Lin is a poor individual defender and in particular a horrific defender on pick-n-roll ball handler play types. Lin yields .91 points per possession on those plays (21.7th percentile), so it’s not surprising that opposing teams continually attack him that way (accounts for half of Lin’s defensive play types). Augustin meanwhile generates most his offense from those play types (53.7 percent of his play types, third highest frequency in the NBA) and is above average in terms of points per possession on those plays. With a starting role, great matchup and expected heavy playing time (only point guard currently on the roster), Augustin is a core play on Sunday. He ranges from a very good option (salary equal to the average cost of a roster spot on FanDuel) to a must play in cash games (34 percent less than the average cost of a roster spot on DraftKings).

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