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3/10 NBA DFS: Reggie Jackson is a core value

3/10 NBA DFS: Reggie Jackson is a core value
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 10th, 2015

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Value Plays:

Reggie Jackson (DET) – Not only is Jackson my preferred value play at the point guard position tonight, but I expect him to be the highest scoring point guard. While his price is rising due to his new role, it’s not fully adjusted yet, especially in light of today’s matchup. Jackson’s season long averages (28.6 minutes, 23.5 usage rate, 26.8 assist rate) receive massive bumps now that he’s Detroit’s starting point guard (32.9 minutes, 27.8 usage rate, 38.4 assist rate). Those increases keep him underpriced while the matchup drives home the profit potential. The Lakers are dead last in defensive efficiency on the season and it’s not even close. While they aren’t running at as fast of a pace as early in the season, a lack of guard depth has actually managed to worsen their defense. Jordan Clarkson (113 defensive rating) and Jeremy Lin (110 defensive rating) are seeing all the point guard minutes and are horrific defenders. On top of the great individual matchup for Jackson, this game is the best DFS target in general. The total (202.5) is the second highest on the night while the 2.5 point spread is the tightest.

Norris Cole (NO) – On a night that lacks strong salary cap relief plays, Cole has emerged as the best cheap option with Tyreke Evans out. He’s near minimum priced on FanDuel (43 percent discount), DraftKings (47 percent) and DraftDay (37 percent) and will likely see 32-plus minutes for a Pelicans team lacking a point guard. While Cole isn’t a great per minute producer, he still lines up to exceed value. Let’s use FanDuel as an example since his discount there is in the middle. There Cole averages .63 Fantasy points per minute meaning he needs to play 32 minutes on average to hit value (20 FanDuel points). Cole hits that minutes marker more times than not in this situation and has mid-thirties minutes upside. There’s also the potential for his per minute contributions to rise if his offensive role expands as the starting point guard. On top of the solid probability of hitting value, Cole is simply one of the few cheap options I’m comfortable with, which has me leaning his way if I feel his projected “value” is similar to that of one of the secondary value options listed in the notes section below.

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