Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 11th, 2015
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – I’m not even sure it makes sense to frame this recommendation in terms of Westbrook’s insane usage rate (44.9 percent in March). By now, everyone knows what an incredible option he is without Durant. I think it makes more sense to frame this recommendation in terms of roster construction. Westbrook’s price point still, amazingly, offers value whether you use a multiple or prefer a multiple plus a constant (like we do). Westbrook’s value threshold on most sites sits around 60 Fantasy points. We project him for 60-65 points depending on the efficiency scoring for each site. He’s scored at least 60 Fantasy points in five straight and his floor has generally been around 50 Fantasy points. As an individual selection, he remains a strong option. The question is: how does selecting Westbrook impact the overall look of your roster? Are there enough value plays that carry a similarly high probability of beating their value thresholds that you can invest comfortably in Westbrook? As you’ll see throughout our content, I think the answer is mixed. We have enough salary relief values that rostering Westbrook is certainly viable, but there are also some secondary stars that are underpriced as well. As a result, I think tonight makes for a good night to consider multiple lineups and perhaps building a Westbrook lineup and a non-Westbrook lineup for cash games and tournaments.
Michael Carter-Williams (MIL) – Carter-Williams’ price point has corrected for his time in Milwaukee and recently his role has started to approach the usage rates he posted in Philadelphia (27.6 percent in Philadelphia, 27.2 percent in March). Carter-Williams gets a great matchup with the Magic who rank 26th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 25th in overall team defensive efficiency. The recent bump in usage rate coupled with a plus matchup makes Carter-Williams a bit underpriced in our eyes and a fine value play.