Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 14th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Top Play: Stephen Curry (GS) (should dismantle the Knicks but the blowout risk is immense (19.5 point home spread) making him a gamble in cash games)
Next in line:
John Wall (WAS) – Wall had some end of February struggles and fatigue was used as one of the possible reasons why. He should be well rested coming into this game. It’s an island game for Washington, just their third game of the week and he played sparingly in two blowouts earlier in the week (30 and 29 minutes). On a six game slate with a lot of situations to avoid, Washington is one of the more logical teams to target. While the spread isn’t tight (-9) and creates some blowout risk, no game features a spread less than six anyways. Furthermore, this game has by far the highest total (210), giving Washington the second highest team total at 109.5 (barely trailing Golden State who are enormous favorites). Totals can be overrated since they are often reflected in Daily Fantasy pricing, but not in this instance. Washington is slightly below average in pace (17th) and their high team total is a reflection of Sacramento’s quick pace since Mike Malone was fired (currently up to seventh in the NBA) and lack of defense (27th in team defensive efficiency). Beneficial contextual factors more specific to Wall are his home/road splits (third consecutive year he’s averaging more points and more assists at home than on the road) and Sacramento ranking 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards. With the price down a bit across the industry due to his cold end of February and blowouts keeping his past two strong games in check Fantasy wise, Wall is a strong cash game option.
Deron Williams (BKN) – While Washington is a good team to target, the best team to target tonight is Brooklyn. Let’s look at some of the other game environments. You’ve got Golden State as enormous favorites (-19.5) against an awful Knicks team with a spread out rotation. Sacramento plays down in pace against a good Washington defense. Milwaukee and Memphis are two average to slow paced teams that feature strong defenses (185 total). Detroit is on the road against a very slow paced Utah team that has been amazing defensively with Rudy Gobert playing big minutes (185 total). There just aren’t a lot of Fantasy friendly situations to take advantage of. The Nets on the other hand are on the road favored by seven points (actually the second tightest spread of the evening) facing a Philadelphia team that is still Fantasy friendly despite their improvement in defensive efficiency. With every game being a must win for Brooklyn and the team playing up in pace (Philadelphia is sixth), their starters are a strong bet to see the most possessions above average on the night. That’s good news for a favorably priced Deron Williams (below the average cost of a roster spot). He should be able to take advantage of Philadelphia’s backcourt duo of Isaiah Canaan (110 defensive rating with Philadelphia) and Ish Smith (108 defensive rating with Philadelphia). That’s a big drop off from Michael Carter-Williams‘ 104 defensive rating.